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Monday, November 5, 2007

THEO’S ASTROMETEOROLOGICAL LONG-RANGE CLIMATE & WEATHER OUTLOOK
WINTER 2008 SEASON OUTLOOK FOR THE UNITED STATES:

A Colder, Drier & Windy Winter Ahead
By Theodore White; Astrometeorologist, C.S.A

Astrometeorology is a long-established science of forecasting Earth’s advance climate and weather through astronomical means. The main technique tracks the motions, and conditions of the Sun, Moon, and celestial bodies in their angular and magnetic relationships to the Earth to future positions, and forecasting the weather. Improving forecasts of extreme climate events such as drought, floods, and large damaging winter storms can save many lives, including billions of dollars in damage. Forecasting in advance is very important for farmers, workers, federal, state, and local leaders and planners to avoid losses of life and property. My models focus on present, and future astronomical transits, along with applying data from past astronomical configurations to forecast future climate conditions years in advance. This includes monitoring the polar vortex, regional temperatures, precipitation, air motion, along with jet stream and stratospheric conditions, sea-level pressure (SLPs) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) atmospheric waves, and snow cover levels, etc., based on the law that all weather conditions are caused by astronomical motions relative to the Earth, and its own position around the Sun.

THEO’S ASTROMET WINTER 2008 GENERAL OUTLOOK
The 2008 Winter Season in North America reveals a shift in climate conditions across the continent, resulting in colder than normal average temperatures in the Northeast, with drier than normal conditions, particularly in the West, Southwest, and Southeastern United States. The story of Winter 2008 will be the split temperature ranges between warmer than normal and very dry climate in the Southeast versus the colder than normal and wetter climates in the Northwest, Midwest, Heartland, Great Lakes, New England, and Northeastern U.S.

Meanwhile, regions that suffered drought just two years ago, Texas-Oklahoma, and parts of the Gulf-bordering states will see wetter than normal conditions this winter with active spring-like storms extending as far north as the Great Lakes, featuring high winds, heavy rains, and potential tornados this winter season. Colder than normal and wetter conditions this fall and winter in the Northwestern U.S., through to the Intermountain West leading along the U.S.-Canadian border into the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. Blustery, cold winds will be common this winter season across most of North America. It will be drier than normal this winter with drought conditions persisting in the Southeastern U.S.

THEO’S WINTER 2008 CLIMATE DYNAMICS OUTLOOK
Ø Colder than normal temperatures, excepting far west & South
Ø Drier than normal conditions thru Southeast, Southern California
Ø A strong La Nina that peaks February/early March 2008
Ø Colder & drier than normal winter along the U.S. Southern rim Ø Dry & windy winter in California
Ø Persistent Drought in California & Southeast continues into 2008
Ø Windy wet & stormy weather from Gulf states to Great Lakes

Ø LACK OF PRECIPITATION: California, Southwest & Southeast
Ø PERSISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS: Southeastern U.S.

Ø DRIER THAN NORMAL W/ DROUGHT: Southeastern U.S.; Intermountain West, Idaho, Nevada, central & southern California, eastern Oregon, central/western Montana, western Wyoming, central/western Utah, northern to central North Dakota, central to eastern Wisconsin.

Ø BLUSTERY WINDS: Pacific Northwest, Central Rockies, Gulf states, Heartland, Midwest, Great Lakes
Ø COLDER THAN NORMAL: Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, Upper Great Plains, Central Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, U of P, Ohio Valley, New England states. During the winter season at night: Southeastern U.S.

Ø STORMIER THAN NORMAL: Pacific Northwest to Central Rockies towards the east/ northeast up to the eastern Great Lakes. From the Gulf to Heartland, and to the Upper Midwest. Severe winter weather will be further north-by-northwest this winter.

Ø WARMER THAN NORMAL: South, Southeast, Southwest, Central to Southern California
Ø WILD TEMPERATURE SWINGS: Upper Midwest, Heartland, Plains, Southeast
Ø WETTER THAN NORMAL: Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, Great Lakes, U of P, Michigan, Heartland, Great Smoky Mountains & Eastern/Central Tennessee, southern Florida

ASTRONOMICAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AMERICA
Blustery weather and colder than normal temperatures will be typical this winter season with below average cold temperatures and cutting winds that can chill to the bone. The cold temperatures and drier than normal climate will be a common theme this winter. For a majority of the country. Wearing several layers of clothing is advised this season due to the colder than normal winter season in North America.

SUN’S ACTIVITY & LUNAR NODES
The Sun is at minimum. The correlation of solar activity at this time regulating the Earth climate is for a stronger La Nina this year. Solar minima activity tends to increase extreme weather throughout the Earth’s atmosphere. Solar minima activity will be reflected in phase reversals witnessed in indices like the PDO. Expect colder than normal average temperatures, but with drier climate conditions during the winter of 2008 ~ excepting an area that stretches from the Gulf Coast through the Heartland states, into the Midwest, Upper Midwest and towards the Great Lakes. This region will see above average precipitation that features strong storms, sometimes spring-like storms because of clashes with colder and warmer air masses. According to my calculations, the winter of 2008 will be like the winter of 1988/1989. Expect to witness colder than normal and wetter than normal climate conditions due to the astronomical influences that direct Earth’s climate showing La Nina conditions along the equatorial Pacific.

RETURN OF LA NINA
Astronomical transits reveal a shifting of climate conditions in autumn 2007, just before early winter affecting both coasts along the North American CONUS as seen from space. This is revealed by the direct astronomical causes on the Earth’s polar vortex, and the resulting action of the jet stream. The climate anomalies and jet stream action is caused by solar, lunar and planetary angular positions, and motions relative to the Earth. After reviewing fall 2007’s and the coming winter 2008’s astronomical transits, I expect a strong ENSO this year. Because of the La Nina, we should see weak low-level easterly winds at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Expect to observe upper level westerly winds at the Earth’s equator that will be stronger than average in the equatorial Pacific with convections obscured in central and eastern parts of the Pacific equator. It will be observed that cyclonic anomalies exist in the subtropics of the southern hemisphere. This means we should see building convections over the western Pacific and parts of Indonesia this winter. Astronomical causes reflect that the resulting atmospheric and sea anomalies will continue to show a strong La Nina this winter in the northern hemisphere.

I expect drought conditions to expand, and worsen in regions across the United States during winter/spring/summer 2008. At the time of writing (fall 2007) about 36 states are experiencing some form of drought with the most serious in the west, and southeast. Nationally, the effects of La Nina conditions can be severe as the drought of 1988 was a cause of an estimated 10,000 deaths from heat stress, caused $30 billion dollars in agricultural losses with a record number of forest fires in the United States. Medium-range, my forecast shows a strong La Nina this coming winter, to be followed by neutral ENSO conditions during the fall season of 2008, winter 2009, and again during the spring of 2009 to autumn 2009.

I am forecasting that we should see a stronger El Nino to follow in the year 2010 to mid-2011. I also expect to see strong recoveries of northern snow packs during the months of October, November & December ~ with the exception of north/northwestern Alaska where a warm water anomaly will persist. Expect to see explosive cooling sea-surface temperature anomalies picking up towards the winter solstice at the equator. Usually, a La Niña is indicated by a rise in cool subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific. At middle latitudes in North America, low-pressure systems influenced by La Ninas are weaker than normal around the Gulf of Alaska.

This favors the build-up of colder than normal air over Alaska and in western Canada that develop into systems that enter the western U.S., and in the Great Northern Plains. The southeastern U.S., under La Nina conditions often is warmer and drier than normal. This will be the case this year in the Southeast. A persisting drought has lowered drinking water levels for several Southeastern states to critical levels. This winter will see drier than normal conditions; however, populations in the Southeast should prepare for colder than normal anomalies this particular winter season.

During a northern Hemisphere winter internationally there are increased rains in the countries of Indonesia, northern Australia, in the Amazon Basin and southeastern Africa with below average precipitation along the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific and in eastern equatorial Africa. This La Nina will peak leading to the time of the winter solstice in the northern hemisphere. The eastward atmospheric and oceanic waves push cold water to the surface along with a rise in the easterly trade winds that appear just off the countries of Peru and Ecuador when sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below normal. As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the cold anomaly in the equatorial Pacific brings about a drier than normal climate in the U.S. Southwest in winter as well as a dry climate in the Central Plains and the Southeast.

The Pacific Northwest will see a wetter than normal winter season with colder than normal temperatures and increased snow levels, even at lower elevations. Expect strong fluctuations in the jet stream over the Northwest to allow modified arctic air to intrude into the northwest this winter season. By January 2008, a Pacific jet stream will direct the majority of the stormy weather to the country from the north, into the Great Upper Plains, into the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley this winter season.

Look for NAO phases to run neutral for much of the winter, while a strong Bermuda ridge remains stubborn with above average warm temperatures for the South, Southeastern U.S., as far as the Mid-Atlantic States this winter season.

October 2007 thru May 2008: TROPICS ACTIVE THIS WINTER
My forecast indicates dry and colder than normal climate conditions from the central Plains states to the Southeast this winter season. The far west features a dry & windy climate for southern California greatly heightening the threat of wildfires in that region during autumn 2007 and winter 2008. Expect stormy conditions from the Gulf of Mexico featuring warmer air clashing with cold air in the center of the country.

The tropical islands of the Caribbean will have tropical action in the autumn & winter months sometimes affecting southeastern Florida and the coastlines of the Carolinas towards parts of the Mid-Atlantic this winter. Increased spring-like stormy weather will stretch from the Gulf States into the Heartland, and Midwestern states as far north as the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest this winter.

Meanwhile, expect a sometimes strong, sometimes weak Bermuda High to influence climate off the eastern U.S. coast, particularly the mid-Atlantic this winter. This will lead to anomalous warm events; interspersed with cold anomalous storms with sudden drops in temperatures with tropical moisture from the south/southwest early in winter, and then north/northwest by mid-winter. Drier conditions with occasional blustery storms will dominate the winter of 2008.

With colder than normal winter temperatures, rather than precipitation the story this season. Snowfall is nominal for much of the nation, except for a thin stretch of the central U.S., stretching from the Great Lakes to the Midwestern U.S. Colder temperatures will stretch down through the Rocky Mountains to parts of northern, central, towards northeastern Texas, near the Oklahoma panhandle. This year’s overall winter indicates a bi-polar climate with colder than normal temperatures for the central to mid-eastern half of the country, and warmer than normal conditions in the west, Southwest, South, and Southwest up to about the Piedmont, and the Carolinas.

THEO’S SEASONAL OUTLOOK BY REGION WINTER 2008:

_ PACIFIC NORTHWEST & INTERMOUNTAIN WEST – (Seattle, WA/Portland, OR, Pendleton, OR/Spokane, WA, Boise, ID, Salt Lake City, UT. Flagstaff, AZ, Grand Junction, CO.) OUTLOOK –> COLDER, AND WETTER WINTER SEASON. WINDY AT TIMES WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF SNOWS AT HIGHER & LOWER ELEVATIONS. SLICK ROADS, WITH ICE BUILDING THIS WINTER. PREPARE FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS.

_ UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OUTLOOK -> WINDY, COLDER & STORMIER THAN NORMAL WITH WILD TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TORNADO ACTIVITY STRONG THIS YEAR FAR NORTH OF USUAL REGIONS TO THE SOUTH WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINTER STORMS. WINTER RANGES FROM WET EARLY IN WINTER, DRIER BUT COLDER IN MID-WINTER, AND WETTER IN LATE WINTER.

OUTLOOK FOR REGIONS INCLUDE:

Ø LAKE SUPERIOR – (Lake Superior/Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota/Duluth, Minnesota/Marquette, Wisconsin/Green Bay, Wisconsin/Traverse City, Michigan)

Ø LOWER LAKES/LAKE MICHIGAN REGION - (Milwaukee, Wisconsin/Chicago, Illinois/Gary, Indiana/South Bend, Indiana/Grand Rapids, Michigan/Kalamazoo, Michigan/Lansing, Michigan/Detroit, Michigan)

Ø LOWER LAKES/LAKE ERIE & LAKE ONTARIO REGION – (Toledo, Ohio/Cleveland, Ohio/Erie, Pennsylvania/Buffalo, N.Y./Toronto, Canada/Rochester, N.Y./Syracuse, N.Y./Rome, N.Y./Utica, N.Y./Watertown, N.Y./Ithaca, N.Y./)

_NORTHERN & SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA – (Sacramento, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego) OUTLOOK -> SAN FRANCISCO RAINFALL WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE DRIER THAN NORMAL, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER.

_ SOUTHWESTERN U.S. – (Las Vegas, NV/Phoenix, Arizona/Tucson, Arizona/El Paso, TX/Albuquerque, New Mexico) - OUTLOOK -> MILD, WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS. WINDY WEATHER THREATEN WILDFIRES THIS WINTER SEASON. _ SOUTHCENTRAL U.S. NEW MEXICO/TEXAS/OKLAHOMA - (San Antonio, TX/Houston, TX/ Dallas, TX/Oklahoma City, OK) OUTLOOK -> WETTER THAN NORMAL & MILD CLIMATE CONDITIONS. STORMY WEATHER WITH SPRINGLIKE CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLASHING WARMER AND COLDER AIR MASSES SPAWNING HAIL AND POTENTIAL TORNADOS. DURING THE WINTER SEASON. HIGH WINDS AND RADICAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

_ HIGH PLAINS & ROCKY MOUNTAINS – (Montana/North & South Dakota/Cheyenne, Wyoming /Denver, Boulder, Colorado/Amarillo, TX) OUTLOOK -> WETTER THAN NORMAL WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HELP DROUGHT-PLAGUED MONTANA AND WYOMING. CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. _ CENTRAL MIDWEST/HEARTLAND TO SOUTHERN GULF STATES – (Omaha, Nebraska/Des Moines, Iowa/Topeka, Kansas/Kansas City, Missouri/ St. Louis, Missouri) OUTLOOK -> SEVERE SPRINGLIKE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER WITH CLASHES OF COLDER AND WARMER AIR MASSES WITH HEAVY PRECIPIATION AT TIMES. VERY WINDT CONDITIONS THIS WINTER WITH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

_ SOUTH & GULF REGION – (Little Rock, Arkansas/Nashville, TN/Tupelo, Mississippi/Jackson, Mississippi/ Shreveport, Louisiana/New Orleans, LA/Montgomery, Alabama/Mobile, Alabama/Pensacola, Florida) OUTLOOK -> WETTER THAN NORMAL WINTER IN THE GULF REGION BUT WARMER THAN AVERAGE. STRONG SPRING-LIKE STORMS WITH TORNADOS NOT UNCOMMON THIS WINTER WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION & POTENTIAL FLOODING IN THE GULF STATES. WINDIER THAN NORMAL. MEANWHILE, DEOUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN ALABAMA INTO 2008 WITH THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED STORMS THIS WINTER SEASON.

_ SOUTHEASTERN U.S. – (Raleigh, North Carolina/Charlotte, North Carolina/Columbia, South Carolina/Atlanta, Georgia/Savannah, GA/Charleston, S.C./Georgetown, S.C./Cape Fear, S.C./Wilmington, S.C.) OUTLOOK -> COLDER THAN NORMAL AT NIGHTS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH WILD SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, VERY DRY CLIMATE AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO 2008 THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WINDY WEATHER AT TIMES. WATCH FOR OFFSHORE STORMS NEAR THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS THREATEN THIS WINTER SEASON. RIP-TIDES STRONG.

_ CENTRAL MIDWEST & WIDER OHIO VALLEY – (Indianapolis, Indiana/Louisville, Kentucky/Lexington, KY/Cincinnati, Ohio/Dayton, Ohio/Columbus, Ohio/Youngstown, Ohio/Pittsburg, PA/Charleston, West Virginia) OUTLOOK -> COLDER & WETTER THAN NORMAL THIS WINTER. VERY WINDY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL AND ICE STORMS. RADICAL TEMPERATURE DROPS FROM ABOVE NORMAL WARM TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WINDIER THAN NORMAL WITH POTENTIAL TORNADOS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDWEST AS FAR AS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

_ APPALCHIANA – BLUE RIDGE & ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN REGION - (Winston-Salem, N.C/Asheville, N.C./Roanoke, Virginia/Charlottesville, VA/Cumberland, Maryland/Harrisburg, Pennsylvania/Scranton, PA/Altoona, PA) OUTLOOK -> COLDER, BUT DRIER THAN NORMAL THIS WINTER WITH SPRING-LIKE STORMS AND POTENTIAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS WINTER. DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN 2008; HOWEVER, THE CAROLINAS SHOULD WATCH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COASTLINES FOR NOR’EASTER STORMS OFF THE COAST THIS WINTER BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING AS FAR NORTH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WINTER.

_ SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST & MASON-DIXON – (Norfolk, Virginia/Richmond, Virginia/Alexandria, VA/Washington, D.C./Baltimore, Maryland) OUTLOOK -> DRIER THAN NORMAL THIS WINTER WITH STRONG SPRING-LIKE STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE SOUTH. BELOW AVERAGE SNOWFALL & COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EASTERN ATLANTIC COASTLINES SHOULD WATCH THE COASTLINES FOR NOR’EASTER STORMS THIS WINTER SEASON.

_ MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST – (Philadelphia, PA/Wilmington, Delaware/Atlantic City, New Jersey/Camden, N.J./Trenton, N.J./Jersey City, N.J./Newark, N.J./Long Island, NY/New York City, NY/Bridgeport, Connecticut/New Haven, CT/Hartford, CT) OUTLOOK -> COLDER AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWER LEVELS OF SNOWFALL. EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINES SHOULD GUARD AGAINST NOR’EASTER STORMS THIS WINTER BRINGING HEAVIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPIATION THIS WINTER. About 3-4 degrees colder by mid-winter for the Mid-Atlantic region this season with below normal precipitation. ANOMALOUS WARMING CLIMATE DECEMBER & JANUARY WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE JANUARY THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY 2008. Blustery weather conditions dominate, but with radical shifts from above normal temperatures to below normal.

_ NEW ENGLAND /ANDIRONDACK, CATSKILL & WHITE MOUNTAIN REGIONS - (Albany, N.Y./Concord, N.H./Burlington, Vermont/Montpelier, VT/Springfield, VT/Auburn, Maine/Augusta, Maine/Stratton, Maine) OUTLOOK -> MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL BUT DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH BELOW AVERAGE SNOWFALL THIS WINTER SEASON. NORTHWESTERN WIND CHILLS MAKE IT COLDER THAN NORMAL. VERY WINDY WINTER, WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. _ FLORIDA – (Jacksonville/Tampa/Orlando/Miami) OUTLOOK -> WETTER FOR FLORIDA THIS WINTER WITH TROPICAL ACTION THREATENING DURING AN UNUSAL WINTER SEASON IN 2008. WATCH THE SOUTHERN TROPICS FOR STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FALL 2007 AND THE ENTIRE WINTER OF 2008. STRONG RIP TIDES & WINDIER THAN NORMAL IN FLORIDA. ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA W/ A WINTER STORM & ANOMALOUS COOLING EVENT BETWEEN FEB. 6-20. AND OVERALL DRIER & WARMER CLIMATE CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS WINTER.

_ ATLANTIC NORTHEASTERN COAST U.S. – (Providence, Rhode Island/Cape Cod, Massachusetts/Boston, MA/Worcester, MA/Springfield, MA/Cambridge, MA/Portsmouth, New Hampshire/Portland, Maine). OUTLOOK -> A MIXED BAG IN THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST WITH EARLY WINTER STORMS IN NOVEMBER 2007, BUT BELOW AVERAGE SNOWS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BUT DRIER THAN NORMAL THIS WINTER SEASON.

Theodore White, Astrolog.CSA

1 comment:

conet0052 said...

Sounds like a chilly winter ahead for the Upper Midwest

cheers,

Janet