2009 SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK

ASTROMETEOROLOGICAL 2009 SEASONAL OUTLOOK
Cogitation: Long Range [2009 Climate] FORECAST

**THEO'S SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR SPRING, SUMMER AND FALL 2009**
A Sluggish Cold Spring But Stormy Summer & Fall Seasons Ahead

*Includes Astromet's 2009 Tropical Storm & Hurricane Forecast*

Prepared: Winter 2009

By Theodore White; professional Astrometeorologist, U.S.A.

SPRING 2009 OUTLOOK
After a long winter season, North America will emerge into a continued active climate during the spring, summer and fall seasons ahead in 2009.

I am forecasting a colder-than-normal "delayed" spring season of about 40 days from the vernal equinox, followed by a warmer-than-normal summer season that extends into the fall months along with an active tropical and hurricane season that will also affect the U.S. Eastern seaboard this year.

Powerful summer and fall storms will affect one-third of the nation, stretching mainly from the Gulf coast, into the Central Midwest, the Southeastern states, and towards the U.S. Eastern seaboard.

Spring 2009 is a bit slow to activate this year throughout two-thirds of North America. Spring seasonal weather will appear earlier than normal, making some in-roads in February 2009, but is slow to fully bloom in the months of March, and April in regions like the Pacific Northwest, New England, northern Plains, the Mid-Atlantic, and Southeastern U.S.

Late season winter storms will extend into the months of March, and April, particularly in the northern and southern Rockies, Wyoming, and the northern Platte Valley of Nebraska, into western Kansas, with late season winter storms and blizzard-like conditions extending south into Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas.

Spring-like weather will be seen in the Southern U.S. in late December, January, and early February. Flooding, thunderstorms, and tornadoes are active in the several regions of the country in late March and throughout all of April. There are strong potentials for tornadoes just east of the Rockies, and in Midwestern, Southern, and Southeastern states.

The climate by the next spring equinox (March 20, 2009) will see increased threats with flooding of rivers from the South to Mid-western states to the northern and upper Plains states. There are threats of Nor'easter-type storms along the Eastern U.S. coast during March and April, with gale warnings and watches persisting on the northwestern Pacific coastlines .

The months of March & April 2009 show cooler-than-normal climate conditions. A cold, unsettled, and stormy winter-like climate exists throughout both months, particularly in the Upper mid-western states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and northern Plains states leading to flooding of rivers.

April sees a continued clash of warmer air with colder air producing tornadoes in mid-western states such as Nebraska and Iowa, and into the South, and Southeastern U.S. April 2009 is windy, wet and cold, with winter-like days and colder-than-normal temperatures indicating spring will be delayed yet another month.

A pickup in Pacific storms in late February forces storms into the Midwest, as the northern jet falls further south, bringing with it gusting winds, and heavy rains in early to mid-April into parts of northern Texas, and Oklahoma, stretching to parts of the central & southern Midwestern states.

The clash of warmer air with colder northern air will produce tornadoes in mid-western states like Nebraska and Iowa, and into the Southern and Southeastern U.S. during March and April

Gulf moisture during March & April 2009 feeds into the Southeastern U.S., meeting with colder air flow from the north/northwest during March and April 2009. This feature will bring about increased late season winter storms featuring a mix of blizzard warnings and tornado warnings in the Southwest, South, and Southeastern states.

Astronomic conditions indicate the transition from winter to spring will be violent this year with a range of flooding, winter-storms, blizzards, gusting winds, tornadoes, and thunderstorm activity across two-thirds of the country in the months of March, April, and May.

According to my calculations, Spring 2009 does not fully bloom for much of the country until the end of the first week of June 2009.

SPRING 2009 CLIMATE CONDITIONS
- Snowstorms (central Midwest, Rocky Mountain States, Southwestern U.S., Great Lakes, Northern Plains)
- Gale Warnings - Pacific Coastline, Florida Basin, Mid-Atlantic coastline
- Flooding of Rivers, (March, April) Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, northern Plains states, Mississippi & Louisiana
- Colder than normal temperatures/Central Texas, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast
- Gusting, Winds, Tornadoes, Heavy Rains (March/April/May) – Midwest, Nebraska, Kansas, South, Southeastern U.S.
- Severe Thunderstorms - southern & central Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Austin & San Antonio, Texas
- Dense Fogs (April/early May) central Texas, Oklahoma, North & South Carolina
- Drier than normal w/Drought conditions - California, Nevada, southeastern Idaho, eastern Oregon


SUMMER & FALL 2009 OUTLOOK
My Summer 2009 seasonal outlook calls for a warmer-than-normal-summer, with above-average temperatures and high humidity that will persist into the autumn months, leading into an Indian Summer for the South, Southeast, Upper and Central Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, New England, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic states.

The summer is very stormy, with numerous and powerful thunderstorm activity, gusting winds, and electrical storms lasting into late fall in several regions of the country. The air is quite charged in summer and fall 2009.

After an sluggish start to spring, the Summer 2009 season features some "spring-like" storms in the months of July & August in the Southeastern U.S. featuring severe thunderstorms, lightning strikes, gusting winds, and tornadoes.

The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. is warmer than normal with sweltering temperatures. This year, the eastern seaboard experiences tropical storms and at least two hurricanes threatening eastern states with damaging high winds and flash flooding as a result.

Summer & Autumn 2009 is very warm and humid for two-thirds of the nation, excepting the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountain states, and Great Lakes, which will see a moderately cooler summer in 2009.

The atmosphere is electrically “charged” during summer, with powerful thunderstorm activity lasting the entire summer season, and into the fall months throughout much of the country; especially the far west, including southern California, the Central & Southern Rockies, central Midwest, South, the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S.

There are unusual late season electrical storms with thunderstorm activity lasting into the month of November 2009. This extends into the month of December for the South, Southeast , states bordering the Mason-Dixon Line, and into the state of Maryland, and Washington D.C .

The Southwest, Southern Plains, Central to Southern Rockies, Southern Midwest, and Southern states should guard against powerful summer and fall storms with gusting winds, heavy precipitation, hail, and lightning strikes.

After a wet late winter, and spring, the far western states of California and Nevada will see a reduced threat of wildfires during the spring season. However, expect drought conditions to persist during the summer months of mid-July, August, and September 2009.

The months of August & September 2009 are particularly hotter, drier and windier than normal in western and southwestern states . Communities and firefighters are urged to use extra caution during the summer months in helping to prevent the spread of wildfires during the late summer and fall months.

I am forecasting a new El Nino to build in the Pacific by mid-2009. This build-up of Pacific Ocean waters will lead to a very wet late 2009 and 2010 for the Pacific coastlines stretching from British Columbia to the north and extending as far south as central South America with heavy rains for the state of California.

This means that the western states of Washington, Oregon and California can expect heavier than average precipitation and the associated floods and mudslides from the influence of the coming El Nino I’ve forecasted to begin in mid-to-late 2009, and increase in strength into all of 2010.


SUMMER & FALL 2009 CLIMATE CONDITIONS
- Warmer than Normal Temperatures
- High Humidity
- Numerous & Powerful Thunderstorms (lasting deep into the fall 2009 season.)
- Flash Flooding From Heavy Downpours
- Hail & Strong Electrical storms - (July, August & again November, December)
- Tornadoes & Gusting Winds – South, Southeast, Central Midwest, Ohio Valley)
- Tropical Storms & Hurricanes – Above Average Years Affecting Northern Gulf Coast, Florida Basin, and East Coast

THEO’S TROPICAL & HURRICANE 2009 SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The names below will be used for North Atlantic storms in the 2009 tropical and hurricane season from June to November 2009. This is the same list used in the 2003 season with the exception of Fred, Ida, and Joaquin, which replaced Fabian, Isabel, and Juan.

Should there be more than 21 named storms (the 21st is Wanda) then additional tropical storm-strength systems will be named with using the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha. This only time this happened was in the year 2005 and 1933.

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

ASTROMET FORECAST ON THE 2009 TROPICAL & HURRICANE SEASON
I expect the 2009 tropical storm and hurricane season to be above average in 2009, meaning an active year of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the Northern Gulf Coast states, the Florida Basin, impacting the states of Alabama, Georgia, North and South Carolina, as well as the entire U.S. Eastern coastline and border Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states.

There will be an unusually high number of U.S. landfalls this year. From astronomic positions I’ve calculated for the 2009 tropical storm & hurricane season, I am forecasting ten (10) hurricanes and six (6) tropical storms to affect the northern Gulf Coast region, the Florida Basin and the U.S. Eastern Seaboard this season.

In the 2009 tropical storm and hurricane season ~ the Eastern seaboard states stretching from the Carolinas to Maryland, affecting Baltimore, Washington DC, southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York State, including Long Island, the Northeastern states; parts of coastal New England, and the coastlines of extreme northeastern Canada ~ all will experience the effects of tropical storm and hurricane activity this year.

Residents in these regions should take care this season to protect lives and property by paying close attention to the North Atlantic this Hurricane Season. This is particularly so for residents along the eastern seaboard of the country in the states stretching from the Carolinas to New England.

I expect the climate around the Florida Basin and the U.S. Eastern seaboard to be electrically-charged this year featuring thunderstorms, hail, gusting winds, and lightning strikes. These enhanced climate conditions will feature heavy rains and flash floods from tropical storms and hurricane activity.

At least two (2) hurricanes and two (2) tropical storm will affect the entire length of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard in 2009. Residents along the East Coast will also experience a warmer-than-average summer and fall seasons, including powerful thunderstorms, heavy rains, flash flooding, damaging winds, tornado sightings, and lightning strikes.

According to my calculations, tropical storm season will start slightly early this year, in the month of May 2009. This will be an active and long tropical storm season that will extend into late November 2009.

THEO’S ASTROMET DATES OF TROPICAL STORM & HURRICANE ACTIVITY
Late May 2009 through December 2009:

MAY 2009

I expect the first tropical system to arrive a little early this year in the Atlantic Basin to occur in the month of May bringing tropical storm activity along with heavy rains, and gusting winds over Florida, and kicking off the new season in late May on these dates:

 May 23,24,25,26,27,28

JUNE 2009

 June,5,6,7,8,9,10

 June 20,21,22,23,24,

JULY 2009

 July 3,4,5,6,7,8

 July 18,19,20,21,22

 July 30, 31

*AUGUST 2009
An active month astronomically. The atmosphere is highly charged. This continues in September.

 August 1,2,3,4,5
 August 6,7,8,9

 August 13,14,15,16,17,18

 August 27,28,29,31

*SEPTEMBER 2009
Another active month astronomically. This translates into a very active month for hurricane & tropical storm activity this year during the month of September.

 September 11,12,13,14,15
 September 23,24,25,26,27,28

OCTOBER 2009

 October 8,9,10,11,12
 October 21,22,23,24,25

NOVEMBER 2009

 November 4,5,6,7,8
 November 16,17,18,19,20,21

DECEMBER 2009

 December 1,2,3,4,5
 December 14,16,17,18

Based on astronomic configurations during the 2009 tropical storm and hurricane season, I’ve calculated that the regions listed below will either be struck, and/or affected by tropical storms and hurricanes as a result of heavy rains, damaging winds, and storm surges.


GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS AFFECTED DURING THE 2009 TROPICAL STORM & HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN

Bermuda
Nova Scotia
Newfoundland
Apalachicola, Florida,
North Naples, Florida.
South Florida
Northwest Florida
Fernandina Beach, Florida
Port St. Joe, Florida
Mexico Beach, Florida
Panama City, Florida
Georgia coast
Hilton Head, South Carolina.
Eastern North Carolina
Cape Hatteras, N.C.
Potential tornadoes & flooding in Virginia
High Winds in Washington, D.C.
Heavy Rains, Damaging Winds Along the U.S. Seaboard
Heavy rains, tropical storm floods, gales off coast of New Jersey
Heavy Rains, tropical storm winds over Pennsylvania
Heavy Rains, tropical storm winds off coast of New York
Azores Islands
Western Caribbean
Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Central Gulf Coast
Southern Cuba
Coast off Lake Charles, Louisiana
Morgan City, Louisiana
Gulf Shores, Alabama
Biloxi, Mississippi
Leeward Islands.
Cape Verde Islands
Western Long Island.
Maine
Rhode Island
Central Massachusetts
Hispaniola
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Last year’s active season of 2008 shows the Atlantic Basin continues to be in an active cycle for tropical storms and hurricanes tied to strong thermohaline circulation and active phasing of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

This is based on my calculations of Solar-forced climate conditions that favor a climate for increased tropical storms and hurricanes. North Atlantic hurricanes follow multi-decadal cycles based on solar forced and planetary modulating cycles.

Astronomic configurations for the coming season of 2009 indicate that the closest related year from past analog astronomical data is from the year 1985.

The 1985 Atlantic Hurricane season was the first since the 1916 season to have an unusually high number of U.S. landfalls (six hurricanes & two tropical storms) with hurricanes making landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, and two hurricanes striking the East Coast. At least $4 billion in damage was reported.

During the 1985 season, eight tropical storms & hurricanes made landfall on the United States mainland, tied for the second highest amount of U.S. landfalls on record (with the 2005 season), behind the 2004 season with nine.

The U.S. Gulf Coast experienced four hurricanes, the most hurricanes to ever strike the area in a single season since the 1886 season until 2005, when five hurricanes (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma), broke that record.

It was also one of only seven hurricane seasons to have a major hurricane form in November, and the latest known occurrence of a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin.

Astronomic analog data relating to positions concerning tropical storm and hurricane intensities feature overall cooling of the Earth’s climate due to solar activity and forcing.

The Sun has been at minimum since late 2006. I expect sunspot activity to pick up just as the hurricane season is winding down in late November/early December 2009. Therefore, I am forecasting a strong tropical storm and hurricane season featuring Category 3, 4, and 5 storm tracks.

Stay safe out there.

Theodore White, professional Astrometeorologist, U.S.A.