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Monday, February 15, 2010

Economic Crisis: What is Coming & How To Survive

For over a year now I have been swamped with requests from desperate people seeking a way out of the effects of the global economic crisis.

Since 2009, I've been working non-stop on astrological reports helping individuals and groups to map out their strategies for this new decade.

I continue to state that there is hope for the future; however, in the near and medium term, people must realize that everything is changing and many things will never be the same.

Those who understand this, and begin to make progress towards creating new lives for themselves will do much better in the 2010s than those who are slower in seeing taking the changes to heart.

Previously, I had been warning about massive levels of corruption in the markets, but to no avail, as people continued excessive spending and failed to notice that "forecasts" from pundits and self-interested groups and individuals of an ever prosperous future were full of it.

By 2007 it had become obvious that the economies of nations were slowing, and by September 2008, when the economic "panic" became real in the United States as the first Saturn/Uranus opposition was within orb - the crisis struck worldwide.

The Banking Crisis of 2007-2010 that was sparked by the collapse of the U.S. Housing Bubble is now taking its peak toll on the country and the world. Stories continue to pour in from all directions of the depression that has set in on people from all classes, cultures and stations of life.

Millions of jobs were lost in the year 2009 with a spate of companies shedding workers: 20,000 jobs cut at Caterpillar; 8,000 jobs cut by Sprint Nextel; 7,000 at Home Depot; 8,000 job cuts from the merger of Pfizer and Wyeth; 2,000 jobs lost at GM plants in Michigan and Ohio with many more clusters of thousands of jobs lost throughout the country.

Over 3 million American homes will be be lost to foreclosure this year. Unemployment is closer to 20% with millions out of work and giving up trying to find jobs. States are going broke with a huge pension crisis on the horizon and cannot meet their public budgets to provide basic services.

Schools are falling apart, families are living in their cars while ideology and political correctness dominated while massive corruption was allowed to run rampant under the direction of a generation who can only be called the "worst generation" in the history of the world.

It is said that 60% of all student loans in the U.S. are in default with an estimated $730 billion dollars in private and government student debt. the remaining 40% that is being paid leaves 60% in "forbearance" while interests continues to add up on top of the principle.

College tuition has been blown up into the stratosphere - beyond all proportion over the last 18 years. So much so that many university students are forced to start their careers hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt before they reach the age of 30.

Europe is suffering as well. Millions of Europeans are suffering as their economies continue to drag along in the wake of the international banking crisis and bursting of the corrupted commercial and residential real estate markets.

This new Depression may outdo the last one and is just the tip of an iceberg says Guy Hands, a private equity analyst who estimates that as much as $4.2 trillion of loans will default over the next five years in Europe and the United States.

"That is equivalent to almost three times the annual output of the British economy!"

In the England alone, some £530 billion pounds of debt is due to be refinanced by the year 2015, according to data provided by Reuters.

Even if huge volumes of debt issued by banks are written off corporations in the UK still must find about £180 billion over the same period. That is enough to run the National Health Service for nearly two years, Hands says.

"It is also roughly twice as much as has resulted from equity fund raising in the London market this year, despite the enormous share issues by Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC and Rio Tinto."

"Unless the loans can be replaced, hundreds more companies will go bust, thousands more jobs will be lost and the green shoots of economic recovery will be trampled into the ground.

"Even where the finance can be extended, companies could be saddled with tough new terms that force them into savage cost-cutting plans to stay alive.

“We have a huge ticking time bomb consisting of lots of little explosions that occur every day and are slipping under the radar,” said Hands.

“The UK and the US are likely to end up with stagflation, with the real human cost being a lost generation who will not find the jobs they have the skills to do.”

People have had enough, and with the start of the Cardinal Crisis transits, with more on tap in the decade of the 2010s - I continue to forecast social disarray, rebellions, revolts, and possible revolutions over the coming years.

"The Big One is coming soon, bigger than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 sub-prime credit meltdown combined," says Paul Farrell, a financial writer and analyst. "A huge market blowout. And as Bloomberg-BusinessWeek predicts: "The results won't be pretty for investors or elected officials."

Farrell says that after the global debt bomb explodes everyone should not expect to bear market correction to followed by a new bull market. "Wall Street's toxic pseudo-capitalism is imploding," he says.

"Be prepared for a massive meltdown. Yes, already the third major bubble-bust of the 21st century, triggered once again by Wall Street's out-of-control Fat Cat Bankers. And it's dead ahead."

What's Coming Next:
Crime Rise, Commercial Defaults & Social Discontent


Last year I forecasted a rise in crime globally as a result of the deep Banking Crisis. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that a prolonged economic crisis ultimately leads to upsets in communities and society in general with geopolitical consequences. This was seen during the 1930s at the height of the Great Depression of that era and under a Saturn/Uranus/Pluto T-square.

There is another T-Square forming now in 2010 and one of the many features of this T-square is a rise in crime.

This is occurring in nations such as Spain, where a 20% increase in bank robberies have taken place since summer 2009, according to the British newspaper Telegraph:

Bank robbery surge as Spaniards turn to crime to beat economic crisis
Amateur criminals resort to over-the-counter stick-ups to solve their money problems. Spain's banking association has reported a 20 per cent increase in the number of robberies carried out at high street branches in the last two years.

"With Spain suffering the highest level of unemployment in Europe and banks denying credit, the trend is towards first time offenders attempting heists usually reserved for hardened criminals.

"In recent months, it has become apparent that Spain is suffering from an increase in bank robberies," Francisco Perez Abellan, the head of criminology at Camilo Jose Cela University in Madrid, told the New York Times

"We are seeing people committing offences through necessity, first-time offenders who can no longer continue to maintain their lifestyle and so turn to crime," he said.

Among those recently apprehended is a building contractor who allegedly held up four banks around Barcelona stealing 80,000 euros (£69,000) before he was caught attempting his fifth heist.

The 52 year-old man, identified as Ausencio CG, told police he used the money to pay his creditors and employees and fund his daughter's studies when his business started to fail with the collapse of Spain's decade long construction boom last year.

Jose Manuel Murcia, of the Workers' Commissions union federation, said such stories were not unusual. "There's unemployment, there's hunger and there's money in the banks, and the three factors combine," he said.

"Banks are denying credit, so companies are having problems ... People can't pay their mortgages. So it's ... logical to rob a bank."

The illogical propensity to rob a bank to pay one's mortgage seems to be spreading to other nations. In Tampa, Florida on February 12, 2010, a 73-year pensioner robbed two banks, according to the Telegraph -

"Un-armed pensioner James Bruce stole $600 (£380) from each of banks. Mr Bruce, who owns a garden center in Tampa, Florida, committed three robberies on separate days in January and February.

He admitted robbing the banks but said he planned to pay back the money, Tampa Police spokeswoman Laura McElroy said. "He called it a repayable loan," she added.

At all three banks, he handed a note to a cashier which said he was carrying out a robbery and demanded six $100 bills. Police said they believed the staff gave up the money because it was bank policy not to have staff resist robbers in case they were armed.

Steve Judeh, a friend of Mr Bruce's, told the South Tampa News and Tribune that Mr Bruce had suffered financial problems. "Everybody you talk to these days, it's about the economy, everything is about the economy," he said.

"I know he had a good job once. He was making a lot of money with the ships on the port and all that. He was taking his wife on a cruise and all that, but the last couple of years, I noticed things change a little."

Mr Bruce is being held in Hillsborough County Jail, and if convicted of the three charges of robbery faces a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison for each charge.

"He's trying to keep his family in their home, but you can't go about it by robbing a bank," Tampa Police Detective Rachel Cholnik said.

Social Discontent

With the advent of the coming Cardinal Crisis transits of mid-2010 I am forecasting that the popular discontent with high unemployment, foreclosures, and the continued corruption and credit freezes among banks and lending firms will lead to a violent summer in the northern hemisphere.

The gridlock in solving the economic crisis continues to lead towards common people committing such acts. Austerity measures in countries like Greece will certainly see mass protests turning violent. Unless the market problems are solved, I'm afraid we will see more events of this nature in many other nations.

I cannot stress the extend to which the economic crisis today is like the Great Depression of the 1930s. There are similar transits, and I expect more failures to come - especially in the commercial sector, which is vital to employment and economic recovery.

However, I cannot forecast a recovery to come in the medium term. Sadly, I do not see a full recovery until after the mid-2020s and surely not until at least the year 2018.

This means that the next seven to eight years will feature a time of increasing desperation among nations as populations struggle with massive levels of debt and decreased incomes.

The global transits I've analyzed for years continue to show that populations around the world will become ever more angry and violent because of the obvious corruption and mismanagement that led to it all.

The social discontent is something that everyone is going to have to deal with, but it is not being faced by policymakers, bankers, and those responsible for the economic crisis.

I continue to state that this is a very serious mistake under the coming world transits of the 2010s and that projections made for the rise in anger are much lower than I would set them.

The Cardinal Crisis transits of this year is extended into the 2010s by the Uranus/Pluto square of the decade. There are seven (7) exact squares in a three-year period (2012-2015) that features increasingly violent reactions to the economic crisis worldwide.

People have discovered that they have been tricked: by investment banks, credit card companies, bankers, the real estate community, the financial media, insurance companies, politicians, and policy-makers.

People are very, very angry, and these are the people who were customers.

Those who are responsible for the economic collapse only have one planet where to hide out - and the world is a much smaller place in the 21st century.

Simply put: there is no place to hide.

Small Bank Failures & Commercial Loan Defaults

This is something I have been warning about for years, but, with few people heeding my forecasts until it was too late.

The bubble years of the last decade has seen small and medium-sized banks failing at the fastest rate since the banking crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s. The failures are due to bad loans made for commercial and development projects.

These kinds of banks lent too much money for land and commercial buildings where the prices were highly inflated by the real estate bubble.

Falling all over themselves in the rush to gain fantastic profits, these banks and their management depended on pie-in-the-sky outlooks that told them that the future was bright and billions were to be made off the retail and office project developments.

However, these "forecasts" were based on nothing but hot air. The potential of failure did not even enter the equation, nor did the very real potential of a recession.

Consider this fact: In the United States, commercial property values have dived more than 40 percent since 2007. My forecast calls for another 30-40% drop between now and 2015.

That means that commercial property values will see huge falls in their values somewhere between 80-90% over the next 3-4 years when all is said and done.

An historic decline to say the least.

The real swamp of defaults will begin in the year 2011. This is the year when most of the refinancing comes due. However, in 2010, owners and developers are unable to pay on their loans.

Many have simply stopped paying altogether because they owe more money than the properties are worth. Losses in early 2010 continue to mount on the books of banks and this will lead to failures with these banks being forced to close between 2011-2014.

What makes the commercial mortgage sector different than the residential sector is that commercial loans are refinanced every three to five years. It is estimated that from now to the year 2014 that $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will have come due for refinancing.

Fifty-percent of these borrowers will struggle to receive any new financing because they will owe more than the properties are worth.

Over the next several years, it is estimated that commercial real estate loans will default and therefore litter U.S. cities with empty stores and office complexes which will cause hundreds of small and medium-sized banks to fail.

It is further estimated that some banks could face at least $300 billion dollars in losses on commercial property and development loans that were made during the bubble years of the late 1990s and 2000s.

Because of the coming defaults it is also expected that banks will reduce lending even further and the bank failures will delay any recovery due to the increase in job losses.

Read Report On the coming Commercial sector disaster from The Congressional Oversight Panel - http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-021110-report.pdf

How To Survive

One of the ways toward surviving the current and future times is simply to accept that things are changing. This is something that the generation responsible for the economic crash has never done, and so, the advent of the Panic of 2008 has led to a global economic meltdown that continues into 2010.

While ideology and political wrangling goes on with this aging generation conditions on the ground continue to spiral out of control. The Cardinal Crisis transits of 2010 is just the start of a contentious decade at least into the mid-2010s from my astrological analysis of the celestial inclinations ahead.

For most of 2010, the generation of the Baby Boomers will be looking back. This is due in part to the position of Venus as "evening star" through October 2010.

However, the world transits of 2010 also clearly reveal that looking and planning ahead should be the goal, despite the retrospectives on the past that have little effect on providing a way into the future.

That future, in my perspective, is rougher than this generation could imagine for itself. It isn't pretty at all.

"America's already descending into economic anarchy," Farrell says. "We're all trapped in a historic economic super cycle, a turning point that must bleed through a no-man's land of lawless self-destructive anarchy before a neo-capitalistic world can re-emerge.

"Investors tell me they "feel" it at a deep level, "know" it's happening. They keep asking: 'What's the best investment strategy to prepare now?'"

"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink," Farrell believes.

"Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."

Farrell says this is no joke. "Are you prepared? Or preparing? Will your family survive in a post-apocalyptic world, when anarchy is rampant in America? Look at Washington, Wall Street and Corporate America today. You know it's already begun"

The anger that has been building since late 2008 and into early 2010 will seek release with the strong cardinal energies of July, August and September 2010.

As the temperatures warm with the advent of spring, then summer, people everywhere who have been affected by the Banking Crisis will seek revenge on those they feel are responsible for the mess that has struck society

So, how to survive?

One sure way is to apply strategies that see new opportunities on the horizon. It will not be long before the banks and their leaders responsible for the economic crisis are relieved of their positions, while remaining banks that are healthy will reach out towards communities and customers to lend money to those in need of starting or sustaining their businesses.

One problem will be the move toward becoming frugal. Although saving is a good thing, and is mainly for seniors, the issue with cutting back on spending is that it increases unemployment, reduces the activity of consumers, decreases sales, and thus makes economic recovery impossible.

Media sites are full of "advice" on being frugal, but the deflationary economy that has run rampant since 2007 will continue to deflate until all the hot air is out of the markets.

In the meantime, people will continue to suffer as they search for employment and delay starting new companies and running small businesses that are at the heart of true economic recovery.

The economy has deflated enough. We can see this through double-digit unemployment, commercial and residential foreclosures, and business contraction. The point is that until the generation that brought all this negativity are removed from their positions - a full recovery will not happen.

Some steps to Take:

  • Look at making transitions in 2010
  • Make Plans for 2011's transits
  • Know Your Own Personal Transits
  • Avoid reactionary impulses
  • Network with others
  • Avoid emotional depression
  • Avoid Anger
  • Avoid Complacency
  • Take advantage of Opportunities
  • Avoid ideology

One of the things that will be an excellent strategy for anyone is to use 2010 to relaunch your personal and professional aspirations into the spring of 2011.

Transits are very active after the long year of 2010 and by March 2011, anyone who is ready to take advantage of opportunities will be ready to make things happen after the stagnation of 2008, 2009, and 2010.

Economic times will continue to be very challenging in 2010 and through to the mid-2010s. This is because of the failures of the generation and policymakers of the 1990s and 2000s to plan for the future. They did not.

What they did was sacrifice medium and long-term growth for short-term gains. Those "gains" were made by few people who squandered massive amounts of money and resources to satisfy their own greed.

Make no mistake - these are historic times, and there will come radical changes in society, in business, in politics, in society: worldwide in the years ahead.

However, those who are not of the generation that led the world into economic depression will be able to envision, and implement economic recovery, but it will take time as the generational transition begins to speed up.

In Farrell's perspective, this is not a war about ideology he says, but it is an economic game changer.

"This is a war to control 299 million American taxpayers. A war waged by the "Happy Conspiracy" that Jack Bogle profiled in his 2004 "Battle for the Soul of Capitalism," a war machine of Fat Cat Bankers, CEOs, 42,000 mercenary lobbyists and a Congress held hostage to unlimited campaign donations."

Their conspiracy has been waging war against Americans for decades, long before the Supreme Court exposed their dirty secret, Farrell says.

"Yes, your enemy is that Happy Conspiracy. It has degraded into a pseudo-capitalism with no conscience, no sense of the public good, hell-bent on controlling America's mind, your money and the global markets for its own selfish ends.

He believes it will trigger a game-changing global-debt bomb a third global meltdown of the century that finally ignites a Second Great Depression - plunging the world into an era of anarchy.

Farrell says investors keep asking: 'If it is coming, how do I invest? Buy gold? Commodities? Hedge? Short trading? TIPS? Hoard cash? Buy and hold? What if the Dow sinks below 5,000?'"

"Maybe its a worst-case scenario. A deeper plunge to the 1,000 range? Imagine a global depression, a bear market dragging on for decades: "How do I protect my family? Can I ever retire? What do I invest in? How can anyone prepare?"

The fear is real and palatable considering the lack of transparency and honesty over a wide spectrum of public and private institutions, banks, schools, and government.

And it is this very real fear that awaits the inclinations of the Cardinal Crisis transits of July, August, and September 2010, on top of the Uranus/Pluto squares ahead to the mid-2010s.

I wish my own forecasts could be more hopeful, but, seeing the continued greed and corruption of the financial community and the coming global transits; I am forecasting upheavals of the likes not seen for many, many years since the last Great Depression.

So, while waiting for the overall economy to recover, be creative, and ready and willing to take advantage of the positive opportunities transits will bring to those who look to the future.

Not with angst as aged Baby Boomers do - but with hope, so that the future of this new century, and new decade can be used much better than the last two decades.

4 comments:

CrisisMaven said...

As for demographic, trade and other economic or social science statistics and indicators etc.: I have posted a Statistical Reference Inventory (http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/references/) to my economics blog with economic and statistical data series, history, bibliographies etc. for students & researchers, probably the most comprehensive on the Internet. Currently over 400 meta sources, it will soon grow to over a thousand. Check it out and if you miss something, feel free to leave a comment.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your very thorough analysis of the coming Cardinal Crisis and how it will manifest on the world stage. I've been trying to find out as much as I can about the T-Square, and hope that you will continue to post on this topic leading into the storm. I live in the UK, and have been out of work for over 8 months. The jobs I have been applying to have been highly subscribed, attracting over 100 applications for each position. How can one possibly prevail when faced with such competition?! It's very dispiriting, and I'm running out of hope. I suspect alot of people who are looking for work are feeling like this, as you've discussed in the article. Thanks again and I look forward to reading more about this.

jude cowell said...

Excellent article, Theodore, thank you. Jude

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