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The Cardinal Crisis
Here Come The OWSers
By James Howard Kunstler
All last week across the media landscape, in pod, blog, flat-screen, and crunkly old newsprint columns, fatuous professional observers complained that the 'Occupy Wall Street' marchers "have no clear agenda" or "can't articulate their positions."
What impertinent horseshit. I saw a statement on one OWSer's sign that said it all:
$70,000 College Debt
$12,000 Medical Bills
I'm 22
Where's My Bailout?
What part of
that is unclear to interlocutors of what we called 'the establishment,' back in the day?
That would be the day of the Vietnam War and the Aquarian Upsurge.
One difference being that in 1968 we at least had some solidarity in the older generation coming from figures of gravity like Senators Robert Kennedy (bumped off), Eugene McCarthy, J. William Fullbright, George McGovern, Rev Martin Luther King (bumped off), and even one US Attorney General, Ramsey Clark.
Today, the entire "establishment" is a clueless, hopeless blob of self-interested, craven opportunism. Even the arty fringe - the people who pretend to be an avant garde - are nothing but narcissistic self-branding operations masquerading as culture leaders.
The worst offender this past week was the prating empty vessel Nicholas Kristoff at The New York Times, who affected to offer the OWSers his own tidy agenda of nit-picky, arcane tax reforms (e.g. "Close the 'carried interest' and 'founders' stock' loopholes") and limp-dick banking regulations (e.g. "[move] ahead with Basel III capital requirements.")
David Plotz and his Gen X sidekicks at the Slate Political Podcast were equally mystified.
I have some heartier suggestions:
Bring the full weight of the RICO Act and the federal anti-fraud statutes down on Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, Brian Moynihan, Angelo Mozilo - and a host of other impudent schmekels still at large in their world of Escalade limos and Gulfstream vistas.
Or, if that's just too difficult, how about a handy lamppost and about 40 feet of stout nylon cord?
It is cosmically ironic; of course, that the same generation of Boomer-hippies that ran in the streets and marched through the maze of service roads around the Pentagon has become a new "establishment," - more obtuse, feckless, greedy and mendacious than the one they battled with over 40 years ago.
I guess they just don't see that their time has come to get right with reality - or get shoved aside and trampled.
The essence of the OWSer's argument is pretty simple:
They've got a raw deal; somebody dealt them a bad hand; someone ran their society into a ditch and not a goddammed one of the older generation will set in motion the machinery to correct the situation - or even
acknowledge it.
At the apex of this establishment is the Baby Boomer's moral trophy president: Barack Obama, whose election made the Boomers feel good about themselves - while they proceeded to loot the national treasury's accumulated capital and then reach forward a few generations to rob their legacy, too.
I haven't heard Nicholas Kristoff (or any of his colleagues at The New York Times) complain about Mr. Obama's stupendous inattention to the crimes of Wall Street, or to the dereliction of his proconsuls in the SEC and the Department of Justice. I'd at least send somebody to hold a mirror under Eric Holder's nostrils to see if he is actually alive.
For my money, the OWSers have plenty to yell about.
Apart from the crimes and turpitudes of their elders - the younger generation hasn't even been prepared for the massive change in reality that these times are heaving them into.
If it was me out there, I'd conclude that I'd better make up the future on my own, with no help from my parent's generation.
In fact, that future is rushing toward all of us so cold, hard, and fresh even in this autumn season that it might splatter the banking establishment - and the global economy - like a bug on a windshield.
The OWSers have a front row seat down there in lower Manhattan. The financial gangrene (thank you Zero Hedge) is not just seeping anymore; it's blowing through the arteries of the money underworld like fracking fluid.
The damage can't be contained. Let the Arabs have spring. The OWSers of America own the fall.
Rock on OWSers and don't let the "pigs" (as we used to call them) get you down.
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The Cardinal Crisis
Multi-Billions $loshing Around The Globe With $trange Goings On…
By Theodore White, mundane Astrolog.S
World transits and their configurations continues to show that the United States and global banking crisis remains very, very serious and continues to undermine the stability of the U.S. and the entire Transatlantic financial system.
This, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates severely, and continues to hold rates near zero, as the U.S. government attempts another series of fiscal emergency measures to stabilize the economy – but there is no sign that the U.S has actually adopted any real structural reform – of the banks and Wall Street.
A Lesson on Economics 101:
Wall Street uses pure speculation, the inflation of financial bubbles, risk externalization, extraction of usury and the use of ‘creative accounting’ - to create money from nothing.
This is totally unrelated to the creation of anything of real value and serves no valid social purpose.
The Wall Street corporations that engage in these activities are not in the business of contributing to the creation of real community wealth. They are in the business of expropriating it - a polite term for theft. They should be aggressively regulated or taxed out of existence.
Consider this - let’s look at what has amounted to the quasi-nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; along with Citibank - and it is easily observed is that the United States continues to pay a high price for years of rampant and widespread corruption along with piss poor leadership and horrid management of the banking system as a whole.
Why President Barack Obama has not taken these actions will be left to another edition, but we obviously can see that the general election in 2012 beckons. So can Congress and the President.
With little to no regulatory supervision of Wall Street’s corrupt investment banks as well as the piss poor workable framework (and I mean piss poor) that allowed rating agencies to function on very little professional standards – all of this – of all it – has contributed to a Bank/Credit crisis that nearly led to the collapse of the Interbanking system - and its markets in the U.S. and Europe.
Now, we hear central bankers have started work on a three-pronged strategy, behind the scenes in their efforts to build a Euro "firewall" around Greece, Portugal and Ireland to prevent the crisis spreading to Italy and Spain.
Have we missed something? Hasn’t the economic crisis long ago already passed to Italy and Spain?
Reports say that the new plan as of late September 2011 includes €2trillion to be raised for what is called the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) – this with a 50 percent default on Greece’s €350bn of sovereign debt and the French, German and U.S. banks that hold that debt - to be bailed out.
This is effectively what happened with the TARP and Federal Reserve bailout of banks in the United States in 2008-2010.
So, Europe's EFSF is basically a EuroTarp bailout.
Changes to the current €440 billion facility that will allow EFSF to be used to support banks is said to be currently being ratified by individual countries.
This idea behind a larger bailout is that it attempts to allow exposed bondholders of Greek debt to buy even more time (rather than the threat of Greece’s coming default) without excluding Greece from the Eurozone – which the EU fears because of what it means to the Euro and other nations (like Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal) who may follow Greece’s lead towards outright default.
Reuters reported that an increase to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is likely, but that it might not be as large as some have speculated, according to a top European central banker on September 26, 2011.
"We are just now discussing an extension of this EFSF," said European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny from Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
"It is something more than it is now" but "might not be a trillion (Euros)," Nowotny said.
Markets chatter recently has suggested the fund could be increased to as much as 2 trillion Euros from the current 440 billion Euros.
Still, in Berlin earlier, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble cast doubt on any plan to top up the EFSF.
Meanwhile, on September 26, 2011 Eurozone officials were said to working to magnify the firepower of their ESFS as U.S. President Barack Obama put on pressure for Europe to put a stop to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis that threatens to drag the globe into depression.
Obama, saying the crisis "is scaring the world," said EU leaders were not responding quickly enough.
“The region has not fully healed from the 2007 financial crisis or fully addressed issues in its banking system, and its problems have been compounded by the Greek debt crisis,” he said.
"They are trying to take responsible actions but those actions haven't been quite as quick as they need to be," Obama said while campaigning in Mountain View, California.
ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, speaking from New York, said European policymakers had begun to discuss the next steps to shore up the EU financial system and prevent the crisis from derailing an already fragile world economic recovery.
The 440 billion Euros in assets of the the EU’s rescue fund - the European Financial Stability Facility (ESFS) -- could be used as collateral to borrow from the ECB - making more money available to stop a crisis spread; but it was up to individual European Union governments to decide how to do this, Bini Smaghi said.
"I know that people are thinking about these things. They may not be willing to admit it in the public, but they are thinking about these things," he said, citing two U.S. programs [TARP] used to rescue banks in the 2008-09 financial crisis.
"Initially the TARP was used to buy assets and then it was used to recapitalize the banks and it was used to pay TALF, so I think we are now discussing how to do this, how to leverage the money out of the EFSF in a more innovative and efficient way," he told a conference.
A unnamed senior European official said that the aim was to leverage the fund five-fold to shield bigger economies like Italy and Spain from economic contagion. But that there was no agreement on how to do that.
Speculation was rife on what steps Europe might take. In the United States, stocks rose after CNBC reported that a detailed plan was in the works to leverage the fund as much as eight-fold.
CNBC also said that some EFSF money would go to the European Investment Bank to issue bonds and then buy up the sovereign debt of troubled countries.
An EU official involved in crisis resolution dismissed the report as "just bizarre."
"It's not where the talks are. We are talking to the EIB about scaling up its capacity but only in terms of (infrastructure) project bonds," the official said.
In Brussels, Eurozone officials were also seen playing down press reports of emerging plans to cut Greece's debts in half and then to recapitalize European banks to cope with the economic fallout. EU officials stressed that no such scheme was yet on the table in late September 2011.
PRESSURE FROM GERMANY?
Meanwhile, from Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel urged the European Union to strengthen its power so as to discipline EU member states who break fiscal rules. Huge budget deficits are the source of the debt crisis.
"There should be the right to declare such budgets null and void...,” Merkel said, “Otherwise we will not get out of the situation.”
So, on September 29, 2011, being seen to remove a significant obstacle in the European Unions's debt crisis, the German Parliament voted overwhelmingly for expansion of the bailout fund for heavily indebted EU nations. Attention now shifts to Slovakia with questions about an approval process.
In passing the measure Germany promised to increase its share of loan guarantees to 211 billion euros, or $287 billion, up from 123 billion euros - as agreed by national leaders in Brussels in July.
Under EU procedures, however, all 17 EU countries that use the Euro currency must approve the agreement, a process that has revealed widening fissures with layer upon layer of decision-making and political complexity which add up to what some see as the inability to react quickly and decisively to upheaval in lightening speed financial markets.
“The markets see that Europe cannot decide anything quickly, and uncertainty is always an inducement to speculation,” said Gustav Horn, director of the Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Düsseldorf, Germany.
The process also leaves the EU potentially hostage to its smaller members. A significant hurdle was overcome when Finland passed the bailout fund measure on September 28 despite domestic objections and an unresolved dispute over its demand for collateral from Greece.
Meanwhile, it was reported that the countries of Estonia and Cyprus approved the plan as well on Thursday, Sept. 29 and that a vote in Austria may go as expected on Friday, September 30.
Fears have been voiced about Slovakia, the impoverished nation and a former Communist bloc country whose population suffered greatly to adopt the Euro. It is well known that Slovakians have little stomach for bailing out richer countries like Greece.
Of the handful of countries left to approve the bailout measure, it is the only wild card left. Leading Slovak politicians have been highly critical of the agreement with the governing coalition itself is divided about supporting the fund.
The speaker of Parliament in Slovakia, Richard Sulik, has said he will do whatever he can to stop the bailout fund from coming to a vote, even as advocates have desperately sought a compromise.
"The Euro is our common future," said a beaming Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Angela Merkel with German lawmakers voting for the EU bailout agreement
Image: Michael Kappeler/European Pressphoto Agency
"Approving this European fund is of the very, very greatest significance."
Critics say the German public is angry over bailing out countries they believe are squandering the funds of the European Union on social spending. They say the bailout would not stop Greece from doing more of the same. A recent poll showed 66% of Germans oppose bailouts for Greece.
"A rescue package will only help in the short run, and in three to four years, Greece will be in the same spot again," German lawmaker Frank Schäffler said.
Many in Greece reacted bitterly to the bailout because of the strings attached.
In Athens, taxi drivers said they would remain on strike to protest a forced liberalization of their monopoly on taxi permits. Hospital workers walked off state jobs to protest wage cuts demanded by the EU bailout administrators.
The two most powerful Greek trade unions that represent 730,000 workers said members would march on Parliament over a demand that their ranks be slashed by a fifth and their salaries cut by 20%, as well as lowered pensions. Craftsmen, printers and tax officials also staged strikes.
Drivers of trains, subways and buses were on strike as well, preventing children from going to school and making it hard for businesses to make deliveries.
International debt inspectors returned to Athens on Thursday, September 29, 2011 to complete a review on its attempts to install tax hikes, wage cuts and spending decreases.
Protesters blocked government offices to complain that the banks that lent Greece money should forgive a large portion of the debt rather than squeeze ordinary Greeks to help pay back the loans.
Greece must extend a new property tax until the year 2014. This is two years longer than originally planned, after EU inspectors said that Greece's estimates on what the tax would haul in were too rosy. Protestors have been burning copies of that bill in the streets.
The latest German guarantee comes on top of a $600 billion fund approved earlier this year by the 17 EU nations that replaced their currencies with the Euro. That fund did not prevent Greece from nearing a point where it would default on its loan payments and declare bankruptcy.
Germany, with the largest European economy; has provided more money to EU bailouts than any other nation. Germans are worried that things are nearing a breaking point.
"I am convinced we are going to get high inflation because the politics of cheap money, these rescue funds: that means the savings of millions of Germans who made investments will be devalued," Schäffler said.
Others said there was no alternative to approving the measure no matter how distasteful.
"We don't feel good at all about this (bailout) thing," said Bert Van Roosebeke, an economist with the European Center for Policy in Freiburg, Germany.
Roosebeke added, "But you have to ask yourself at the moment, 'Is there a viable alternative?' At least in the short term, I don't think there is. So with a big stomachache, I would say, it was probably a good decision to make."
Other financially stable nations must still approve the new bailout if Greece is to be saved.
Austria's parliament takes up the measure on the last day in September. The Netherlands votes in October as does Slovakia - these are where a sizable bloc of legislators have threatened to torpedo the bailout approval.
The vote was a measure of confidence for Merkel who has struggled against the anti-bailout/anti-Greece sentiment of German voters who voted against her coalition in several state and local elections this year.
Economists say the vote in parliament is not enough to end the crisis, but that it shows Europe that Germany wants the EU to survive. The approval "takes away the fear that Germany might stop the European project," said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at the Dutch financial group ING in Brussels.
Jan Timken, leader of Bürger in Wut (Citizens Enraged), suggested it was time for Germany to consider whether the EU should live on as is.
"We are very against it," he said. "Better would be the exclusion of Greece and other indebted states from the eurozone."
Background
Europe came under fierce pressure from the United States and other nations at weekend talks in Washington D.C. to take swift action to stop Greece's debt woes from engulfing more Eurozone nations while also wreaking wider damage on global markets.
EU officials said that reports saying that plans were already in place for a 50 percent write-down of Greek debt and a vast increase in the Eurozone rescue fund were highly premature.
"There is no change to the framework we are working on," said a euro zone official involved in policymaking on financial assistance to Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
"All this talk of a specific haircut for Greece or an enlargement of the EFSF, it is all just speculation. We are not working along those lines," said the official.
German Chancellor Merkel, who struggled to convince her fractious center-right coalition to agree to a strengthening of the EFSF headed into the crucial vote on September 29, 2011. She warned that letting Greece default would destroy investor confidence in the euro zone.
Diplomats said any talk of a fall back plan for Greece that would raise the cost to German taxpayers could only make her task more difficult in parliament.
GREECE DEFAULTS WITHIN MONTHS?
Greek Taxi drivers protest in mass outside the Greek Parliament
Economists and Brussels think-tank insiders quietly say in private that they expect a Greek debt default within months or sooner. This coupled with a capital injection for European banks and a leveraging up of the new EFSF.
Euro zone officials acknowledged that such policy ideas are circulating and some could constitute a longer-term response to the 20-month-old debt crisis. But policymakers continue to insist – at least publicly - that no specific plans are yet in the works.
Rather, planning continues on the basis that Greece's debt burden, which is close to 160 percent of Greek GDP, can be sustained as long as the Greek government fully implements crushing austerity measures demanded by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
On Saturday, September 24, 2011, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spoke on global concerns about inadequate European crisis management, pointing out that, "The threat of cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk must be taken off the table."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner IMF Chief Christine Lagarde, the former French finance minister who until four months ago was tackling the crisis from the EU side of the table, also made clear that Europe needs to act more decisively - notably to recapitalize
its banks on a grand scale.
Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde
Quietly, Eurozone policymakers appeared to generally accept that a combination of a much deeper Greek debt restructuring allied to coordinated bank recapitalizations and a bolstered rescue fund would make sense and might help the euro zone get on top of the crisis.
However, such a plan requires unanimous support from all 17 EU countries, and that takes time, considering how slowly the EU's decision-making structures take to bring all the moving parts together at once.
"The ideas are all there, but it's not as straightforward as just sitting down and deciding it," said another EU financial official involved in the crisis.
"Many of us can agree privately that anything less than a 50 percent haircut for Greece would just be cosmetic, but getting that decided by all and implementing it is not so easy."
PROPOSAL $OUP?
The next step is expected to be a decision by the EU, ECB and IMF to sign off on the next tranche of support for Greece - the sixth payment from the original 110 billion euro emergency package agreed to in May 2010 under a Mercury retrograde in Taurus.
The timing depends on when the troika of the ECB, IMF and EC completes a review of Athens' progress in implementing deeper budget cuts and tax-raising measures.
Without those 8 billion Euros - Greece will run out of money to pay their October 2011 national wages and pensions.
Financial markets and the private sector seem to be moving more rapidly than policymakers to prepare for the likelihood of a Greek default.
Safe-haven German government bonds fell and shares rallied partly on a belief that European policy makers were working on more decisive action to tackle the debt crisis. Such hopes could be quickly dashed.
J.P. Morgan Securities said it expected euro zone governments to ease the funding crisis among European banks via capital injection of up to 150 billion Euros. This initiative is similar to the U.S. TARP used to bail out the 'too big to fail' banks.
"Euro-TARP is in our view the best risk-reward medicine for opening the Eurobank funding market," J.P. Morgan analyst Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note to clients.
In a separate report, UBS analysts said they expected some form of intervention from the ECB and a euro zone guarantee scheme for bank term-debt, or a Euro-TARP initiative, to provide "sticking plasters" for the system.
Euro zone officials acknowledge that the EFSF is not big enough to handle a bailout of Italy or Spain, the region's third and fourth largest economies. But there is no clarity on how the fund could be raised without more guarantees.
One idea is for the fund to act as an insurer, guaranteeing the first portion of losses on Italian or Spanish debt. That could "leverage" its capacity four or five times, but the legality of such a scheme remains to be established and nothing has been put to euro zone finance ministers.
Another proposal would be to turn the EFSF into a bank, which would allow it to access ECB funds, meaning that it would effectively have unlimited capacity.
But the ECB has raised concerns about such a step, which would politicize the bank's operations and put it on the line for massive liabilities.
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A commentator says,
“Seems pretty simple to me: Create a new fund financed by bonds and use the EFSF as the lowest tier. Offer the AAA pieces to private investors at say 4%, 30-year fixed. Then use the proceeds to buy your damn sovereign debt and remove them off your precious banks.
Germany would be happy as they would not have to foot more money for the likes of Greece. And if you could get at least 1.5 trillion euro and enough sovereign debt off the bank’s books, then you can let Greece restructure.
It should go without saying that I don’t want any Greek bonds in this bucket. You guys can keep that stuff.”
~
Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors on the EFSF
As alleged details are leaked about an alleged proposal to leverage the EFSF all I can do is cringe. I'm waiting for some actual details, but as far as I can tell, Europe is attempting go all in.
It is going to make leveraged bets on itself. If it doesn't work, the senior debt holders will own Europe if the BRICs buy the senior tranche and will end in a fast and furious death spiral if the senior tranche is owned by the ECB or European banks.
We may get a lift on the news. We are trying to rally on the back of the news right now. But if this plan goes ahead, even the slightest cold in the future will turn into the plague.
There will be no strong countries left as they will have tied themselves to the PIIGS anchor with a Gordion Knot that will never be untied in time.
Haven't they seen what happens to SIV's? Are the so confident in an economic recovery that will risk it all at this time? If they get it wrong and it doesn't work, there will be no fall back.
All I can hope is they are tired and too happy with the late night ‘solution’ and the markets initial reaction that after the initial euphoria, cooler heads, like Schaeuble, will prevail. This has the makings of an Epic disaster in the making.
The plans to ring-fence Greece, to erect support for banks and other countries all made sense. Painful - but made sense. If this even manages to avoid pain, it ensures the next crisis won't be manageable.
I do like the idea that the EFSF is going to become an ‘investment bank.’ At least it is consistent with solving every problem with more of the same.
The best part will be when they pay up to poach talent from the banks that they are bailing out. With Gardening leave in Europe it should take about 6 months before the first employee can start.
I will take a look at the details but in meantime, for first time in this crisis, am worried that not only are they doing something that won't work, but something that will make the problem intractable and ensure that the crisis ends worse than anything we had post-Lehman.”
There have been strange goings on during the months of August and September 2011 with billions sloshing around the globe in and out of Europe and into the U.S. - which has almost eliminated normal risk premium.
This is the measurement of the spreads between corporate bonds with A-ratings and government bond yields – such as that during the real estate boom bubble years of 2002 to 2006.
Far too many A-rated sub-prime bonds were unloaded onto the world’s financial markets and for reasons that are still partially unknown, the senior tranches of almost all mortgage-based securities - exploded in volume between 2002 and 2006.
But as Saturn began to enter tropical Virgo in 2007, the U.S. banking crisis started that spring when housing prices began to fall along with doubts about the true spread values of mortgage-based securities (MBS.)
This made the refinancing of the banks’ ‘special investment vehicles’ – with a strong focus on asset-backed securities (ABS)/MBO – very difficult to ascertain.
We can look back to the origins of all this to the 1980s and especially in the late 1990s when the sources of the fragility of U.S. banks and financial markets dated to the late 1990s when risk-taking hedge funds seeking high rates of return on equity created enormous pressures for Wall Street investment banks.
Today, in the midst of the ongoing interbank crisis, European banks teetered towards the edge with widespread fears in the Eurozone and the world of imminent collapse.
In late September 2011, the market rallies of the previous week of September 12-16 clearly showed that angst and fear about the ‘health’ of the world’s economies have risen - even in light of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting Quantitative Easing, Part III, or what they call ‘Operation Twist.’
All this, while readying to take part along with five central banks to hand out a trillion plus starting October 12, 2011 to huge European banks (and some small ones too) and their nations that are effectively insolvent on years of crushing debt financing.
On September 22, 2011, Reuters reported that Europe's debt crisis looks more intractable than ever. The Federal Reserve appears to be shooting blanks when it comes to firing up the U.S. economy.
Add to that, the clear signs that Chinese growth is slowing by the day, and it explains why financial markets took a hammering Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011 with global stock markets, oil, metals and even gold sliding.
Take as a small example the serious financial problems in Europe, as the Caja del Mediterráneo (CAM), that was taken over and is operated by the Bank of Spain, has a huge risks in construction and property development of around 17.5 billion Euros - with a delinquency rate greater than 40%+. More on CAM later.
And now, in the autumn of 2011 with Jupiter retrograde in Taurus, investors now fear there isn't much that authorities can do to stop the slide: central banks are running out of ammunition and the political will among U.S. and European leaders is in very short supply.
I warn private investors who hold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to steer clear of them. Transits show lots and lots of corruption and great risk.
Also, in light of the rather curious events of the so-called ‘2-billion Swiss Franc rogue trading scandal at UBS, we see cracks showing regarding ETFs.
Further below, we will examine the mystery of Kweku Adoboli, 31 year-old, a director of ETFs at UBS who has been accused of causing losses of $2.3 billion in creating fake ETF trades to hide massive positions.
Now, UBS says that “no client money was lost in the affair,” but astrological transits that I certainly can read and interpret say that investors are basically clueless about how the these ETFs – touted as low-cost index-tracking funds, actually work and the major risks ETFs carry.
Meanwhile, all the advertising by hedge fund players and traders shows that 44 percent of investors plan to increase their ETF holdings in 2012.
I would not do that under this particular synodic return of Jupiter in Gemini. You heard it here on Global Astrology first and remember - planetary transits never lie – they always tell the truth and I just work here yall.
Reading the mundane world transits and seeing all of what is going down in the world, you would not believe some of the dumbest shit being perpetuated by people who claim to be smarter and elevated above everyone else.
The amount of corruption, greed, arrogance and stupidity is mind-boggling to say the least.
Now, even as central bankers and finance ministers from the world's largest economies had met in Washington under the G20, very few I say held out much hope for that-give-me-another-economic-bubble miracle that’s been their shared fantasy since 2009.
"People are losing confidence in policymakers altogether," said Kathy Lien, director of research at GFT Forex, an online retail currency platform. "If they keep failing to boost growth and confidence, we may see the kind of deep global crisis we saw three years ago."
In 2008, the investment bank Lehman Brothers' collapse nearly brought down the entire U.S. banking system and pushed much of the world economy into recession.
This time, the main fault lines are in Europe, where officials have struggled to come up with decisive plans to address a possible Greek default and drum up resources to support other troubled countries and banks.
But U.S. officials have hardly been more inspiring. The Federal Reserve’s policies look increasingly impotent, and with the expected political bickering to come under the Gemini transits of 2012 - a major election year – many matters are about to reach a fever pitch.
"Popular trust in the agencies of government is declining everywhere," said Robert Madsen, senior fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies.
"The pattern of a crisis followed two or three years later by a stark deterioration in political power is exactly what occurred in most of the major economies other than the United States in the early 1930s."
That left governments grasping at bad policies such as protectionism, which halted world trade and deepened the depression in most economies. In Germany, Madsen noted, economic privation and distrust in leaders enabled the rise of Hitler.
"I don't see anything like Nazism happening now," he said, "but the gradual erosion of centrist power seems almost inevitable."
Markets were already flashing signs of distress since August 2011.
The S&P 500 tumbled 3.2 percent Sept. 22, 2011, its fourth straight decline, and European shares hit a 26-month low. Copper crashed 7.5 percent to its lowest price in a year, benchmark Brent crude oil fell more than 5 percent, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.71 percent, its lowest in at least 60 years, as investors sought safety.
Investors worry a default in Greece or elsewhere could spark a crisis for euro zone banks with a lot of troubled government debt on their balance sheets.
David Gilmore, principal of currency advisory firm Foreign Exchange Solutions, said the lack of a common fiscal policy and bickering among national leaders does not inspire hope.
"I can't see how Europe avoids a major crash in asset prices, the euro and the banking system, and I can't see how anywhere else on the planet avoids serious contagion," he said.
Seven world leaders urged Europe to "confront the debt overhang to prevent contagion to the wider global economy.
Possible remedies, such as recapitalizing European banks so they can cope with sovereign defaults or adopting a common euro bond for member states, have so far gained little traction.
A European Central Bank study, co-authored by an outgoing executive board member, said the euro project is in danger due to runaway spending and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
The euro hit an eight-month low beneath $1.34 late September 2011, and there are predictions that it will fall further. Barclays Capital sees the euro falling to $1.25 in three months.
Many have taken the ECB to task for being slow to cut interest rates. The Fed, meanwhile, appears to be all out of bullets - and markets know it.
In 2008, the U.S. central bank cut rates sharply to zero and recently pledged to hold them there until at least 2013.
It has also poured $2.3 trillion into the financial system through asset purchases, a policy that helped boost stock prices but did little for an economy where growth has slowed to a crawl and the jobless rate remains stuck above 9 percent.
But the Fed's latest move on Sept. 21, 2011 - targeting lower long-term interest rates by selling Treasuries with short maturities to buy longer-dated ones - was met with a sharp stock market selloff and widespread doubts about its ability to boost growth.
"It was a terrible omen, because the stock market had rallied like clockwork after previous Fed policy moves as if it were Christmas day," said Michael Cheah, who helps oversee $1.5 billion at SunAmerica Asset Management.
"This was the first time the market reacted very badly. It shows they are out of magic dust."
Bill Gross, manager of PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund, told Reuters in August, "It is increasingly apparent to us that policy options are limited and that economic growth is slowing down."
With consumers not willing to spend and businesses wary of hiring, some investors have called for the government to step up spending to keep the economy afloat.
"Without it, at best, we muddle along. At worst, we double dip," Doug Kass, who runs hedge fund Seabreeze Partners in Palm Beach, Florida, wrote in a note to clients.
POLICY PARALYSIS?
And with the United States already running one of the largest budget deficits as a share of output since World War II - political opposition to such spending is high.
President Barack Obama proposed a $447 billion job package this month but is facing stiff resistance from Republicans, who object to tax hikes on the rich to pay for it.
Markets even had the specter of a potential government shutdown to contend with after the House of Representatives defeated a bill Sept. 21, 2011 that would have funded federal operations past September 30; which was then extended into October 2011.
Republicans said the issue will be sorted out, but the flap conjured bad memories of last summer's battle over the debt ceiling that ended with the U.S. losing its top AAA credit rating for the first time in history.
What's more, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators are said to be pushing a bill that would crack down on China for keeping its currency undervalued against the dollar.
Economists fear that may spark a trade war - another threat to a once healthy world economy and yet another echo of the synodic cycle of the1930s.
ANY ROOM FOR OPTIMISM?
Yes, but the room for optimism may be somewhat muted is my mundane answer.
The problem has been the 'kicking the can down the road,' by policymakers who obviously do not know what to do.
Each reaction to a reaction creates a domino effect of yet more reactions down the line and so the problem gets worse - and larger - with each and every reactionary step to the crisis.
This means that their time in leadership has nearly come to a fitting end.
I continue to advise those who would listen keenly to mundane astrological forecasts that unless we gain fresh new leadership, with sane heads and coolness flowing that things will only get worse.
The time of the tired establishment, that of the baby boomers and the oligarchy has ended.
Clearly, it is time for them to be put out to pasture. The health of the world’s economy depends on it.
Now, some will say that there may be a silver lining to all the turmoil. "Policymakers - be they in the U.S. Congress or Europe - often need a crisis to act," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, with $55 billion under management. "Maybe watching the stock market plunge will light a fire under them."
For the bold, the latest market swoon may be a golden opportunity to buy on the cheap.
David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, said guaranteed S&P 500 index yields as a percentage of stock prices still look set to out pace yields on government bonds, calling it "an extraordinarily high reward for anyone willing to invest in stocks."
But Cheah said investors should play it safe for now.
"When driving into a thunderstorm, you slow down and, if possible, stop the car. This is not the time to say the stock market is cheap, I want to buy or the bond market's overvalued, I'm going to short it," he said. "If you go to cash, you live to fight another day."
$TRANGE GOINGS ON...
There were strange goings on during the week of September 12-16, 2011 – the third anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
AP reported September 15, 2011 that:
A joint effort by five major central banks to support Europe's financial system set off a rally in U.S. stocks. Gold plunged and Treasury yields rose as traders sold the safest investments. Markets in Europe soared.
The European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve and three other central banks said Sept. 15, 2011 that they would provide European banks with unlimited dollar loans.
The aim is to fend off worries that the banks could be weakened by their holdings of government bonds from Greece and other struggling European countries.
"It's a pretty powerful action," said Brian Gendreau, senior investment strategist at Cetera Financial Group. "And it's another piece of news that leads you to think the crisis in Europe could be on the road to resolution."
Worries that European banks would have difficulty borrowing have hung over markets in recent weeks. It's a key element in the European debt crisis, rooted in the fear that cash-strapped governments in Greece and Italy won't pay back their banks' debts.
European banks hold large amounts of debt issued by Greece and Italy, which they use as collateral to borrow dollars. The danger is that banks could lose their ability to raise money when other lenders won't take the collateral.
Gold plunged $45, or 2.5 percent, to settle at $1,781 an ounce. Treasury prices fell, pushing their yields up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is used to set interest rates on a wide variety of loans, rose to 2.08 percent.
Dave at Truthingold.blogspot.com responded:
I don't have time to explain the details, but essentially over the past few days the Fed, ECB, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England have been working in concert in order to make liquidity available to prevent the European banking system from collapsing - similar to what happened here in the autumn of 2008.
To simplify things, what has happened is that European banks have dollar liabilities (shorter term loan funding of various sorts denominated in dollars) that are being used to finance non-dollar income-producing assets (mostly denominated in Euros.)
Greek and Italian sovereign debt securities, for instance. The assets are falling way short of being able to support the cash flows required to fund the liabilities (repos, for instance). So, the European banking system is at the brink of "freezing up" and collapsing.
You can read about the details HERE In addition, our Fed has made $500 billion swap "liquidity" facilities available for use - this has been in place for awhile.
And even more startling, it turns out that some big U.S. banks have been engaging in private market repo transactions with some big Euro banks, which have been using crappy collateral. Zerohedge sourced this article: LINK
I was actually stunned when I saw that because it shows how desperate European banks have become for cash. But why are the big U.S. banks willing to take crappy collateral in exchange?
Traditionally repos are done using very short term Treasuries or Agency debt as collateral. Why would U.S. banks be willing to take this shit to keep Euro banks solvent?
And why is the Fed extending half a trillion of taxpayer-backed funding to keep the Euro system from collapsing?
I don't know for sure, and we'll never know until everything collapses, but I suspect that if countries like Greece and Italy and Spain collapse, then the big too-big-too-fail Euro banks collapse.
And if that happens, I suspect that our too-big-to-fail banks - primarily Citi, JP Morgan and Goldman - would collapse under the weight of a very large amount of credit default derivatives and interest rate swaps that require Euro bank counter parties to be able to fund in the event the default parameters are triggered.
In other words, U.S. banks and our Fed are just as desperate to keep the Euro banks alive as are the ECB/SNB/BOE bank members desperate to stay alive.
This scenario is startlingly similar to what happened right before Lehman was allowed to tank, which triggered the big bailouts here. Only this time the scale is Lehman x 50 or 100 because it includes a couple of countries and all of the U.S./UK/European/Swiss To-Big-To-Fail Banks.
I also believe that what I just surmised has a very high probability of being pretty close to what is actually going on.
It also is interesting to me that some big, anonymous banks/Central Banks are lending/swapping out their gold holdings in order get their hands on badly needed U.S. dollars to meet dollar liquidity needs: LINK
What would be frightening to me with these gold swap transactions is that there is a high probability that a lot of this gold being leased out may actually be coming from the same HSBC vault that "safe keeps" the GLD gold.
HSBC is one of the largest LBMA depository banks, which contain a large percent of the world's 400 oz. gold bars. This is exactly why Hugo Chavez wants Venezuela's gold removed and delivered to Venezuela.
Remember the CNBC video in which Bob Pisani is standing in the HSBC vault and supposedly picking up a bar from the GLD "allocated" section? Remember how that bar was NOT actually a bar on GLD's gold list but was purported to be a GLD bar?
More than anything else you read that event underscores why you can't trust ANY of the gold in that HSBC vault and you can't trust that GLD truly has 100% backing of unencumbered bars (i.e. leased out or used in derivatives deals).
I said in my original GLD research report back in Feb 2009 that one day we'll wake up and the price of gold will be up $200 and the opening price of GLD will be down 50-percent.
What is happening right now in the financial system is exactly the kind of scenario and events that I envisioned would cause GLD to ultimately be exposed for what it is.
We could be closer than any of us realize to this type of situation actually occurring. In other words, if you own GLD and think that you own gold, you don't. Get rid of your GLD and buy the real stuff.
Finally, do not let this latest 2-day smack on the price of gold shake you out of your positions or scare you off from buying more physical gold/silver.
This hit on gold, I believe, was nothing more than a coordinated Central Bank intervention in order to get the price lower ahead of all of the above massive fiat/liquidity operations.
This is what happened in the summer of 2008 as well. It also means that the global financial system is in far worse trouble than anyone not inside the Central Bank nerve centers realizes.”
~
What a mess.
I continue to state that the boomer establishment has run its failed course over the last 18.5 years. There is no more time for that establishment, which failed across the board by means of its own arrogance, greed and hegemony. The end game is near and is confirmed by world transits.
Pluto’s transit in tropical Capricorn is basically bringing an end to the old establishment and centrist globalists who are not acquainted with the afterlife.
And there is an afterlife, but where you will spend it forever will depend on what you do in life.
When an old establishment fails it comes down to acts of desperation and we have plenty proof of this worldwide. Consider recent events on Wall Street against Americans who protest the criminal activities that have gone on for years and driven the American and global economy to its knees.
Witness the public ‘bailouts,” the double-digit unemployment, the degradation of society, the low wages, the commercial and residential real estate collapse, the destruction of the education system, the shutting down of schools, libraries, fire stations, the high forced debt onto young college students, and of course, the post office in massive red - all of it debt.
The kicking of people on the streets of New York, the brutality against your own children, the theft of billions, even trillions of resources and wealth that does not belong to you.
Does all that look like generational baby boomer success to you? It doesn’t to me.
The events of September 2011 had Jupiter, retrograde in the money-sign of Taurus, transiting back to its second trine to Pluto in Capricorn.
In September, transiting Mercury in Virgo continued its strong earth trine to Jupiter as global central bankers made their moves to shore up European banks who are in very deep trouble.
Let’s examine other odd happenings:
On Monday, Sept. 12, 2011 - out of Basel, Switzerland:
Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank and Chairman of the Global Economy Meeting, spoke at a press conference at the BIS's (Bank for International Settlements) bi-monthly meeting at a hotel in Basel, Switzerland on Monday, Sept. 12, 2011.
Trichet said central bankers agreed they "have the weaponry to provide liquidity" to banks as needed worldwide, and on an unlimited basis at fixed rates in the Eurozone.
The head of the European Central Bank said recent market turmoil proves the global economy is not back to "business as usual" and that governments need to redouble their efforts to strengthen the financial system against new shocks.
Speaking on the third anniversary of the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, Jean-Claude Trichet said governments must move quickly to implement internationally agreed rules on strengthening bank laws - known as Basel III - and an agreement on keeping "systemically important financial institutions," or SIFIs, from pulling down the global economy if they fail.
"As the continuous challenges demonstrate clearly, we are not back to 'business as usual' as some thought some months ago," Trichet said at a financial conference before a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Wroclaw. "We need resolve and fortitude of the public authorities and lucidity on the part of the private sector.
He said the world's central banks were working together and called Thursday's decision to join in providing dollar credit to struggling banks "a clear illustration of our very close cooperation at the global level and of the unity of purpose" that is needed.
The ECB is playing a key role fighting Europe's debt crisis, providing unlimited credit to banks and taking the risky step of buying Italian and Spanish government bonds in the secondary market. That is aimed at driving down borrowing costs that threaten those governments with financial collapse.
Trichet said collective global action had helped keep the 2008 Lehman collapse from turning into an outright depression. The investment bank's failure inflicted heavy losses throughout the globalized financial system and froze credit and lending, contributing to a deep recession.
Even though a worse outcome was prevented, Trichet warned that "we still have a long way to go to move beyond this crisis."
He said voices had been raised recently against the new bank financing rules and the measures to impose capital surcharges on institutions deemed to big to be allowed to fail.
"In a crisis period where confidence is of the essence, it would be extremely damaging if the authorities were to hesitate, demonstrate an absence of resolve and of the fortitude that is required by the circumstances," Trichet said.
"I see resistance of some in the financial sector against Basel III. I see similar messages on the Sufis. For me, it is crystal clear: what has been decided is decided."
Trichet, who chaired the group working on systemic institutions, is leaving office Oct. 31 after eight years as head of the ECB, the euro zone’s chief monetary authority.
Then, on Thursday, September 15, 2011 –
Poof!
A Couple Of Billion Gone Up In $moke?
UBS suddenly said that a ‘rogue ETF trader’ in its investment bank had lost $2 billion - then said to be $2.3 billion - delivering a fresh blow to the beleaguered Swiss bank.
A week later it led to the resignation of the UBS Chief.
The police in London arrested a European equities trader, Kweku Adoboli, 31, in connection with the case, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly.
A revealed internal UBS memo – Sept. 15, 2011
Dear colleagues,
We regret to inform you that yesterday we uncovered a case of unauthorized trading by a trader in the Investment Bank. We have reported it to the markets in line with regulatory disclosure obligations.
The matter is still being investigated, but we currently estimate the loss on the trades to be around $2 billion US dollars. It is possible that this could lead UBS to report a loss for the third quarter of 2011. No client positions were affected.
We understand that you have already had to contend with unfavorable, volatile markets for some time now. While the news is distressing, it will not change the fundamental strength of our firm.
We urge you to stay focused on your clients, who are counting on you to guide them through these uncertain times.
We want to reassure you that we, together with the rest of the management, are working closely with the Investment Bank’s management and risk and controlling to get to the bottom of the matter as quickly as possible, and will spare no effort to establish exactly what has happened. We will keep you updated on the progress of our investigation.
Yours,
The Group Executive Board
UBS
When I reviewed the astrological transits on this situation at UBS and on the accused European $2 billion-dollar-loss equities trader, Kweku Adoboli, some strange things were observed.
More on that further down, but first let’s look at the fallout which will tell us if UBS may have paid for this to happen because of more serious – and dire concerns on their plate – rampant financial criminality, corruption, greed and of course - insolvency.
A little more than ten days later on Monday, September 26, the swift exit of UBS Chief Executive Officer Oswald Gruebel - head of Switzerland’s largest bank since February 2009 – was announced.
He was replaced on an interim basis by Sergio Ermotti – a man who joined UBS less than six months ago as CEO for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
The resignation of Gruebel, 67, who restored the Zurich-based bank to profit after record losses, marks the third CEO departure since 2007.
“This is a bank now in disarray,” said Christopher Wheeler, an analyst at Mediobanca Securities SpA in London who has an “outperform” rating on the stock. “The board made a terrible blunder” by not persuading Gruebel to stay,” he said.
Morale within UBS has already fallen like a rock following the trading scandal, dropped even further in the wake of Gruebel’s departure, according to an executive at the unit who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
As the fallout from the trading scandal widens, a senior executive at UBS speculated that Gruebel resigned to prevent a greater disruption that might have resulted from the departure of investment-banking chief Carsten Kengeter, who was said to be in the midst of shrinking the division.
Kengeter, 44, is viewed by some at UBS as a favorite of Chairman Kaspar Villiger and told reporters after Gruebel’s departure that Kengeter had done an “excellent job” in covering positions after the loss and that there was no doubt about his future.
Gruebel ‘$hocked’?
Oswald J. Gruebel, Chief Executive of Swiss Bank UBS. Gruebel resigned his position after the mysterious trading losses of $2.3 billion at the bank.
Image: Sebastian Derungs/AFP
Gruebel, in a memo to UBS staff, said he was convinced a change of leadership at the top was in the best interests of UBS.
He resigned as the board grappled with the aftermath of the trading loss in Singapore, where members and executives convened for a meeting scheduled to coincide with the bank’s sponsorship of the Singapore Formula One Grand Prix.
“That it was possible for one of our traders in London to inflict a multibillion loss on our bank through unauthorized trading shocked me,” said Gruebel, a former trader whose career in finance spanned half a century.
Of course, the scandal dealt a “significant setback” to UBS’s efforts to rebuild trust, he said in the memo. Gruebel, joined UBS after working for 37 years at rival Credit Suisse Group AG. He is the only man to have served as CEO of two of the biggest Swiss banks.
Brought out of “retirement” to rebuild UBS after record losses, Gruebel returned the bank to profit about six months after he arrived and was said to have resolved a dispute with the United States over banking secrecy that threatened UBS’ existence. Meanwhile, he slowed down nine straight quarters of client losses at UBS.
Are More UBS heads to Roll?
Two senior UBS executives speculated on whether other departures might follow, such as Kengeter, Maureen Miskovic, 54, who took over as chief risk officer in January 2011 and Thomas Daula, the chief operating officer at the investment bank.
Miskovic previously served as chief risk officer at State Street Corp. and held the same role at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. for six years until 2002.
Daula, who was hired in June 2008 to run risk management at UBS, had been chief risk officer at Morgan Stanley in 2007 when that bank wrote down $9.4 billion on “wrong-way proprietary trading bets” on mortgage-related securities. He then became chief operation officer at UBS’s investment bank in January.
Gruebel and Kengeter tried since 2009 to rebuild UBS into a top-tier investment bank. They hired more than 1,700 people and brought in new business heads to replace those that left or were fired.
They also increased risk-taking while global market turmoil and rising capital requirements led them to reverse their own strategy before the $2billion loss. It is expected that UBS’ retrenchment will accelerate.
“In the future, the investment bank will be less complex, carry less risk and use less capital to produce reliable returns and contribute more optimally to UBS’s overall objectives.” A 70-year old observer said.
UBS is expected to scale back on credit businesses which they see as not profitable and that will be affected most by the higher capital requirements under the rules of Basel III, according to Cormac Leech, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Ltd. in London.
He says he has placed a “hold” rating on UBS’ stock. The equities business, by contrast, “has a relatively high return so you’d expect them not to close that down,” Leech said.
UBS said that it announce further changes to their investment bank in a presentation to investors scheduled for November 17, 2011.
Jupiter Retrograde In Taurus
“They’ve got to change the aspirations of the investment bank and they’ve got to shrink it,” said Peter Thorne, a London-based analyst at Helvea SA.
UBS said it may be unprofitable in 2011’s third quarter after the $2 billion debacle. The loss came less than two months after Gruebel said UBS had “one of the best” risk-management units in the industry.
So this obviously raises questions about the bank’s controls under the current establishment management, does it not?
Going back to the $2 billion loss, UBS said on Sept. 18, 2011 that it also resulted from trading in Standard & Poor’s 500, DAX and EuroStoxx index futures over the last three months.
While the positions were taken within the “normal business flow of a large global equity trading house,” the size of the risk was hidden by phony trades, UBS said.
Kweku Adoboli, 31, the UBS trader charged with fraud and false accounting that may have resulted in the loss, remained in custody shortly after the news but was released on $1 million dollar bail.
The bank’s shares have declined by 7.4 percent in Swiss trading since the trading loss was announced and 34 percent this year. That compares with a 37 percent tumble in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index, which tracks 46 companies.
Gruebel’s decision to leave throws into relief the lack of a succession plan at UBS, analysts said. Villiger is scheduled to step down in 2013 and be replaced as chairman by former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, 54, who lacks hands-on experience running a commercial bank. The trading loss also reduces the chance Kengeter will ascend to the top job.
Villiger, on the conference call with reporters on Sept. 24, said the board tried unsuccessfully to persuade Gruebel to remain until the annual shareholders meeting.
He will be paid for a six-month notice period and have no further role at the bank. His sudden departure suggests a worrying level of disorder, especially as Chief Financial Officer Tom Naratil took up his post only three months ago, said Mediobanca’s Wheeler.
“They’ve left themselves in a vacuum,” Wheeler said. “It’s got a brand new CFO and now they’ve let the CEO walk away.”
Ermotti in Charge?
Ermotti, a 51-year-old Swiss national who joined UBS in April after working at Merrill Lynch & Co. and UniCredit SpA, will be interim CEO while the board seeks a permanent successor to Gruebel, the bank said.
In his 18 years at Merrill Lynch, Ermotti oversaw businesses including the global equities division before leaving in 2003 to join UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank.
As UniCredit’s investment-banking chief, Ermotti also supervised global transaction and private banking. Ermotti had aimed to compete with the world’s top securities firms as mergers soared and business flourished before the subprime crisis spread and credit became scarce.
He later scaled back the plan to focus on corporate and investment-banking business in UniCredit’s home markets.
The incident raises questions about UBS’ management and its risk policies at time when UBS is said to be trying to rebuild operations and bolster its flagging client base.
The case could also bolster the efforts of regulators who have been pushing in some countries to separate trading from private banking and other less risky businesses.
The revelation about the rogue trader comes as the bank tries to regain its financial footing.
Last month, UBS announced it would shed 3,500 jobs, following poor second-quarter results.
In an internal memo, the bank said the unauthorized trading could drag down earnings in the third quarter to a loss, adding that “no client positions” were involved in the “unauthorized trading.”
“It’s a shock, a real negative surprise,” said Panagiotis Spiliopoulos, head of research at the private bank Vontobel in Zurich. “People thought that after the bank had been revamped following the 2008 crisis, it was set up in a way that could avoid this kind of event.”
The UBS rogue trading case is the biggest such incident in Europe since Jérôme Kerviel’s unauthorized trades in equity-linked futures at the French bank Société Générale in 2008.
Mr. Kerviel was convicted October 2010 of breach of trust and other crimes and sentenced to at least three years in prison. He was also ordered to pay restitution of 4.9 billion Euros ($6.7 billion), the amount the bank lost in unwinding his trades
UBS said that they uncovered the trading losses late Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2011, reporting the matter to the police several hours later. Then, at 3:30 p.m., British authorities arrested the 31-year-old Adoboli at his place of work at UBS offices on Finsbury Avenue. citing suspicion of fraud by abuse of position.
Adoboli was taken into custody for questioning at a station in the City of London. According to a police spokeswoman, he was to be sent home, released on bail pending further inquiry or charged with an offense.
UBS said the matter was still being investigated and did not disclose other details. Regulators declined to comment on the trades or the markets in the case.
Adoboli, who graduated with an honors degree in computer science from the University of Nottingham, was a director on the exchange-traded funds and Delta One desk. It is the same sort of group for which Mr. Kerviel worked for at France's Société Générale.
Delta One desks, considered an increasingly important profit center for big financial firms, undertake a number of activities for clients.
In one such area, index arbitrage, traders try to capitalize on slight differences in the price of stock indexes and index futures.
Analysts offered up conflicting theories on the nature of Adoboli's alleged unauthorized trades. Some have suggested they involved stock-related financial products while others pointed to derivatives in the foreign exchange market - worth an estimated $4 trillion a day.
Business Insider conducted a poll because of the rumors that all is not what it appears to be. I agree, considering the configurations of the planets regarding all the strange goings on and huge amounts of funny money bouncing around the globe:
Quote -“UBS's Kweku Adoboli is in trouble for allegedly making trades that ultimately cost the beleaguered bank $2.3 billion.
However, theorists think Adoboli is no rogue trader. Rather, they think UBS is letting him take the fall for the firm's wide losses.
Now, why the hell would they do that?!?!
NOT $O FAST SOME SAY...
UBS would much rather be embarrassed for having lax operational risk management, than be known for financial market incompetence. After all, what good is a financial services firm that doesn't know how to trade in the financial markets?
If UBS announced Q3 earnings and said, "We lost billions of dollars on wrong-way bets on the market," they'd look really stupid.
For market credibility's sake, they would be better off saying, "We lost money because just one of our guys committed fraud. Sorry, for not keeping tabs on him."
Adoboli was paid off to be a scapegoat. (An 8-figure hush fund in a secret Swiss bank account would explain that million dollar smile.) He was a fall guy.
This has sparked intense debates inside Switzerland and throughout the world.
“The question that will be posed is how could this happen given the fact that all banks have committed to reduce proprietary trading,” said Rainer Skierka, an analyst a Sarasin, a private Swiss bank, referring to the practice of firms trading with their own money. “The next question is how the supervisor’s line of control works.”
Mr. Skierka said the loss was unlikely to materially affect the capital position of UBS. The bank has a reported 38.7 billion Swiss francs ($44.2 billion) and a Tier 1 ratio of 18 percent, based on criteria from the Bank for International Settlements and is reputed to be among the strongest worldwide.
“It’s more about the timing, given current discussions in the Swiss Parliament on the ‘too big to fail’ problem of systemically relevant banks, and reputational issues,” he said.
Swiss lawmakers are due to debate new rules in autumn 2011 intended to “shore up” their two giant banks, UBS and Credit Suisse.
Those contentious laws are of particular importance to the Swiss people, because banks there generated 6.7 percent of the Switzerland’s gross domestic product in 2010.
Now, there had been previous calls in Switzerland for the too-big-to fail banks’ investment units to be split away from deposit-banking – a type of Glass-Steagall Act that was undone in 1999 under the Clinton Administration in the U.S. – and frantically led by former senator Phil Gramm, who worked for guess who? UBS.
But those proposals fell by the wayside and were replaced with plans for tighter capital adequacy rules. The transits show that British regulators were informed of the UBS trading case and have been in contact with their Swiss counterparts.
According to the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, Tobias Lux, a spokesman for the Swiss regulator said it was “promptly” informed of the $2 billion loss by UBS.
“We are in very close contact with the bank,” he said, but he declined to provide any details.
What UBS has been struggling with has been to turnaround its operations after the crippling bank crisis of 2007-2008 when UBS was forced to accept government support.
Earnings fell to about one billion Swiss francs in the third quarter of 2011. This is down from 2-billion francs from a year earlier. So, in their moves to cut costs, UBS announced in August 2011 that it would eliminate 3,500 jobs - with 45 percent of the firings out of their investment banking unit.
This latest episode will present an immediate challenge to a management team that is in flux. Axel Weber, the former Bundesbank chief, is set to take over as chairman from Kaspar Villiger next year.
While UBS chief executive, Oswald Grübel, brought out of retirement to stabilize UBS in 2009, is now expected to follow others binto retirement in the next couple of years.
So JUST what the hell HAS been going on?
Well, we all know that since Jupiter’s retrograde at 10-Taurus on August 30, 2011, that central bankers, politicians and international traders have been playing a three-card where’s-the-shell game with the economic systems and treasuries of nations hanging in the balance.
Here’s a take on it from Tyler Durden at Zerohedge.com:
The European equities trader, Kweku Adoboli, he is said to be known as a naked short silver trader:
This could probably explain a lot.
According to the FT, which has managed to sneak a peek into Kweku Adoboli aka, the scourge of UBS, Facebook’s profile, in a July 31, 2011 update said:
“Will they? Won’t they? Reduced to watching Fox News for guidance, it’s a grim affair.”
Kweku Adoboli
It appears that Adoboli should thus be commended - under those conditions we believe it is a miracle a person’s loss can be confined to just $2 billion.
FT continues with the cyber stalking: That was followed a week later amid steep market falls, by an entry that read:
Adoboli : “Can we shut down global markets for a week so everyone can just chill out?”
It also appears that the Delta One’er (which is just a fancy name for “correlation desk” trader) enjoyed his downtime as well:
“He came across as someone who worked quite hard to get where he was and played quite hard too,” said the acquaintance.
Yet by all counts it appears that the event that did ole’ Kweku in was the Swiss [franc] intervention on September 6, 2011:
However, the final message left by the trader on his own Face book page on September 6 simply read, “need a miracle.”
Odd: so does Tim Geithner and the Eurozone. Alas, as the latest “rogue trader” incarnation just found the hard way, those are in short supply these days.
Also from the Financial Times: According to entries on Facebook, the UBS trader, Kweku Adoboli, is a 31-year-old computer science graduate described as an ‘up and coming’ trader by colleagues, had been following the recent market turmoil closely.
Mr. Adoboli is thought to have been arrested on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2011 by City of London police on suspicion of fraud by abuse of position.
He is currently being remanded in custody. A 2003 graduate from Nottingham University, where he studied computer science, Mr. Adoboli began working at UBS in London in 2006.
“There is a lot of shock, horror and disbelief,” a person said of his arrest. “He was incredibly straight and upstanding with very high integrity.
He would definitely not be the first place you start looking.”
~
On Those Exchange Traded Funds:
Better Watch Your Money, Honey
By Theodore White, mundane Astrolog.S
A) Check what kind of ETF you own
ETFs can be divided into physical and swap-based funds. Physical ETFs own all or a selection of the stocks in the index they are tracking. So a physical FTSE 100 ETF will own all or some of the UK’s largest companies.
A swap-based, or “synthetic”, ETF may not own any of the stocks in the index it tracks. Instead, it relies on a third party investment bank to provide the index return at a future date, through an index swap contract with that bank – the ETF itself may contain a variety of different stocks not related to the index it tracks.
Stocks held in an ETF can therefore change on a daily basis. Some providers will allow you to monitor this daily: iShares launched physical commodity ETFs this week that allows investors to check exactly what the fund holds on a website.
B) Wise Up To Counter-Party Risk
A swap-based ETF depends on a third party to provide the index return – so, by definition; it is partly dependent on the solvency of that third party. If it were to go belly up you will not get all your money back.
For instance, in Europe, swap-based ETFs are only allowed to take a maximum counterparty risk of 10 per cent – which means that the most you could lose if the third party did go bust is exactly 10 per cent.
So it is a matter of common sense for American and non-European investors to discover from your ETF provider what counterparties are involved.
You had better really look into the strength of which institutions they are or you could be very sorry. Don’t say that a professional astrologer did not warn all of you.
C) Find Out If Your ETF is lending out stocks
Remember, a counterparty risk does not only apply to synthetic ETFs but you may discover that your physical ETF may also be lending out stocks it owns to interested third parties. That pops in yet another counterparty risk.
You see, they may not be able to return those stocks.
D) Look Into Those Tracking Errors
Tracking errors happen when an ETF does not perfectly replicate its own index. For instance, if the ETF only buys a selection of stocks in an index. There is more risk with smaller, illiquid stock markets where stocks are harder to buy and sell.
This kind of thing is far more prevalent to occur with physical ETFs, because the swap-based ETFs rely on a third party to provide the return rather than doing it themselves.
As a mundane astrologer who provides economic guidance, my general advice to any investor reading this is to avoid – that is – stay as far away as you can from some ETFs because these instruments are too complex – even for smart private investors.
The global transits show that there is so much corruption, stupidity and malfeasance been going on in the financial sector that under present generational and political management, you will lose your shirts and dresses to these fools.
Want to stay liquid? Get proper astrological vetting done of your broker houses, brokers and wealth managers. See if they have the transits to either make you money or to send you to the poor house. In these times – you had better be certain.
Since Jupiter’s station to retrograde in August 2011, there sure has been a lot of financial news and goings on in what typically is the slowest month of the year – the height of summer vacation.
Consider this:
On Thursday, September 15, 2011 it was suddenly announced that Morgan Stanley's chairman, John J. Mack, will step down from that post at the end of the year. This paves the way for firm's chief executive, James Gorman, to take over Mack's role.
John Mack
The bank's board met via telephone to vote on the decision, according to people familiar with the matter but not authorized to speak on the record.
Mr. Mack, the firm's former chief executive who has been chairman since early 2010, is expected to retain a senior advisory role at the firm and is currently working on a book about leaders and his years on Wall Street, which is scheduled to be published next September.
It is expected that Mr. Mack, a graduate of Duke University, will join other corporate boards. He already sits on a number of not-for-profit boards and is chairman of Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman's panel of economic advisers.
The decision to have Mr. Gorman succeed Mr. Mack as chairman was widely expected.
Mr. Mack, 66, is one of Wall Street's best-known figures. He worked at Morgan Stanley for years, rising from bond salesman to the firm's president. After a long-running dispute with Morgan Stanley's chief executive, Philip Purcell, he left the firm in 2001.
He soon resurfaced at Credit Suisse, which named him chief executive of the Credit Suisse First Boston investment bank, and later co-C.E.O. of the parent company, Credit Suisse Group.
At Credit Suisse he lived up to his nickname "Mack the Knife", slashing jobs and costs. But the relationship in the end was ill fated. At one point he proposed merging Credit Suisse First Boston with another investment bank. The Swiss bank's board disagreed and his contract at the Suisse Bank lapsed in 2004.
Soon Morgan Stanley would be asking for him back, however. In 2005, following an uprising at the bank against Mr. Purcell, the board asked Mr. Mack to return as chief executive. He received a standing ovation when he walked into the trading floor on his first day.
Yet his record as Morgan Stanley's lead was mixed. He ramped up risk after returning to the firm, giving it some of its former swagger, but was unable to pull it back in time in 2007 and 2008 as the New York bank sustained significant losses.
During the financial crisis, the firm required billions of dollars in emergency support from the federal government as well as a big investment by Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group in order to survive.
Mr. Mack however received credit for negotiating the Mitsubishi deal, convincing the Japanese bank to move ahead with the partnership despite the difficult environment.
Mr. Gorman has been running the day-to-day operations of Morgan Stanley since 2010. He has been working to turn around the firm's fortunes, reducing risk and rebuilding units that were injured during the credit crisis.
He has received credit from analysts for his efforts but Morgan Stanley's stock, like that of other financial firms, continues to languish. It is currently trading just above $16 a share, down from $29.60 when Mr. Gorman took over. When Mr. Mack took the helm in 2005 the firm's stock was trading above $43 a share.
Morgan Stanley's move to combine the role of chief executive and chairman is likely to raise eyebrows among corporate governance watchdogs, who typically encourage companies to have a non-executive chairman, a move they feel gives the board a more independent voice against management.
Wall Street is now split on this issue. Citigroup and Bank of America have split the roles, while Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and now Morgan Stanley have combined it.
~
The Cardinal Crisis
Even More Banks In Spain Fail?
Back in Europe, where the summer of 2011 has been anything but normal as Spain’s official bank rescue fund nationalized three more savings banks - and valued them even lower than their directors’ worst expectations only a few weeks ago, according to the Bank of Spain and private bankers.
Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez, governor of the Bank of Spain, said Friday, September 30, 2011 that the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring or Frob was spending €4.75bn on recapitalising the banking operations of NovaCaixaGalicia (NCG), CatalunyaCaixa and Unnim.
The takeover of the three savings banks was expected as September 30th was the deadline for banks to find new capital to ensure that their 'principal capital' - akin to what is called Tier One core capital under international banking rules - reached 10 per cent of risk-weighted assets for lenders without outside investors.
Valuations were exceptionally low however, suggesting that the Frob was unimpressed with the assets of the cajas or savings banks concerned, all of which have been affected by the collapse of the Spanish property bubble since 2007.
NCG’s banking business was valued at 0.12 times book value, CatalunyaCaixa’s at 0.09, and Unnim at zero, said Mr Fernández Ordóñez and Javier Aríztegui, who heads the Frob executive.
That gives the Frob 93 per cent of NCG, 90 per cent of CatalunyaCaixa and 100 per cent of Unnim, they said. Unnim was assigned a nominal value of €1.
“When a caja is worse, as when anything is worse, then it’s worth less,” was the blunt comment of Mr Fernández Ordóñez. By contrast,
CaixaBank, the new banking arm of Barcelona-based La Caixa, was floated at 0.8 times book value, while Bankia, a merger of Caja Madrid and six other savings banks, managed 0.4 times.
Spanish regulators have consistently been more optimistic about the state of the country’s banks than Spanish commercial bankers and foreign analysts, arguing that tight supervision has limited potential losses.
Regulators say the Frob is investing a total of €7.55bn, with private investors having put in €5.84bn, most of it through the initial public offerings of Bankia and Banca Cívica in July 2011.
Spanish officials insisted that they see no immediate need for further recapitalization of the country’s lenders; although independent analysts say €30 billion or more of extra money injections may be needed to stabilize the system.
“As of September 30, the process of recapitalization is complete,” said Mr Fernández Ordóñez.
In the restructuring of the Spanish banking sector, the number of Cajas has been reduced from 45 to 15 through mergers.
But successive interventions to rescue failing cajas – first Caja Castilla La Mancha, then CajaSur and most recently Banco Cam (formerly Caja Mediterráneo) – have weakened the case of authorities.
However, soon after each rescue, the published figures showed that loan losses were much worse than first thought.
click on graphic to enlarge
After being seized in July, Cam reported a first-half net loss of €1.14billion euros and disclosed that its bad loan ratio had risen to 19 per cent of assets, compared with the officially published figure of 9.1 per cent in December 2010.
The authorities will now try to sell the cajas controlled by the state, starting with Cam, but are expected to find it difficult to find buyers unless they offer generous “asset protection schemes” to insure the new owners against loan losses.
click on graph to enlarge
We discovered that on September 20, 2011 news broke that the Bank of Spain endorsed the purchase of CAM with up to 20,000 million Euros.
The Spanish Libremercado said, “This means that the entity that is made with the box will have a mattress for Valencia provided by all Spanish taxpayers in case the brick sector losses that are hidden in their balance sheets are larger than expected.
In fact, it should not surprise anyone.
Since beginning the process of restructuring the financial system, Spanish banks' balance sheets have been losing face with negative showings in 2007 and 2008.
The bodies were found in the accounts of billions of bad loans - unpaid or very high risk -
resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble.
click on graph to enlarge
All of them have had to go slowly accepting discounts on your portfolio. But the three boxes so far have highlighted intervened with its own light (although not by a positive issue).
Had it the actual accounts of the CAM, Cajasur and CCM been know then there would have immediately been headlines in the Spanish press.
The industry has been in constant tension, among other things because the fact it was known that the balance of these boxes were not as clean as it was supposed also affected, if only indirectly, to the rest.
In this way, seeing the numbers that CAM is logical that the Fund has been in need of rescue (Frob) is injected so far 5,800 million (2,800 direct and 3,000 in cash a liquidity) and the Bank of Spain endorsement with up to 20,000 million sale to another entity.
And, the profit of CAM increased from 40 million to reflect a loss of 1,136, while the declared default would septiemvre 5.2% in 2010; it exceeded 19% after intervention.
Not that his two traveling companions have done much better. So went from declaring losses Cajasur 196 million to discover about the red of 950 million Euros - and its default soared to 13.2% when it was assumed that was half of that figure.
With these two changes, it is not strange that his experienced buyer (the Basque BBK) request to the Bank of Spain to assume 90% of losses from real estate assets, saying he did not know the true situation of the institution.
Finally, there Caja Castilla-La Mancha (CCM), which was the first box intervened in this crisis.
In this case, delinquencies rose in a month from 6% to 17% declared real, while a modest but reasonable profits of 30 million Euros will be converted in just a few days in a loss of 740 million that had FROB Cajastur to eat for the buyer who sought the Bank of Spain, agreed to stay with the case of La Mancha.
In total, after being intercepted, these three cases yielded higher losses to 2,500 million Euros - resulting from a dramatic increase in arrears (in some cases nearly quadrupled compared to the official announcement before he entered the Bank of Spain).
The problem is that these entities had passed without difficulty supposedly strict regulatory controls.
Although the Spanish government insists that there are no surprises and that the financial system is recapitalized and in recovery - with this background it is not surprising that there are still many who do not really finish.”
~
The thing that all policymakers and leaders, both civilian, military and those of intelligence services should always remember - is to mind the world's astrological transits.
The Earth has entered a strong synodic cycle in relation to powerful planetary transits which I call the 'cardinal crisis.' These crisis planetary configurations will be with the world for years - so it is important for all sides and interests to very carefully mind the planetary inclinations that influence them.
Often, those in positions of power 'think' that they know all that there is to know about one another and the geopolitical situations they game out. Yet, what is more often the case than not is that the astrological transits that revolve above and below the world are much more important to observe.
History has shown us time and again the folly of those whose 'games' - be they overt or covert - often play out with tragic and unintended consequences.
The United States and Pakistan, along with their respective intelligence agencies, the CIA and Pakistan's ISI, have been engaged in a sort of small 'hot war' when it comes to the situation in Afghanistan and inside the hotbed of activities within Pakistan.
I urge all sides to consider the world transits and to mind the future consequences of their games and acts of attacks; followed by retaliations, then revenge followed by more attacks.
On October 1, 2011 Reuters reported that NATO-led forces said they captured the senior commander of the Haqqani network in Afghanistan, a man named Haji Mali Khan, during an operation in eastern Paktia province earlier in the week.
Khan is called "the uncle of Siraj and Badruddin Haqqani ... one of the highest ranking members of the Haqqani network and a revered elder of the Haqqani clan," said a NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) statement.
Siraj, or Sirajuddin, Haqqani and his brother, Badruddin, are sons of veteran Afghan militant commander Jalaluddin Haqqani.
NATO said Khan had managed bases and operations in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and moved forces across the border for attacks, as well as transferring funds and sourcing supplies. The force called him "the senior Haqqani commander in Afghanistan."
Khan was captured in Jani Khel district of Paktia province along with his deputy and bodyguard, in an operation by Afghan and foreign forces, NATO said.
He was heavily armed but "submitted ... without incident or resistance," the force said. It did not detail how they had identified Khan.
The Taliban, to whom the Haqqani network has pledged allegiance, denied that Khan had been captured.
"I have just spoken with Haji Mali Khan, he is fine and is somewhere else and hasn't been detained," spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Reuters. "This is a baseless news and it has been released in order to weaken Mujahideen's morale," he said.
Members of the Haqqani network declined to comment on the ISAF statement, but confirmed to Reuters that Khan is Sirajuddin Haqqani's maternal uncle.
They said he was not a senior commander but his relatives are involved in the Haqqanis' fight against NATO forces in Afghanistan.
A Pakistani intelligence official, however, said Khan was closely involved in the affairs of the Haqqanis, and managed the group's links with other militant organizations in Pakistan's northwestern Pashtun tribal areas.
"This is a blow for the Haqqanis," the Pakistani official said, requesting anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
NATO said this year they had arrested 1,300 suspected Haqqani insurgents and 300 insurgent leaders in 500 operations that aimed to disrupt the network. About 20 "network facilitators" were killed, the force added.
Khan had also established a militant camp in Paktia province in the past year, and reported directly to Sirajuddin Haqqani, NATO said.
Sirajuddin is now believed to be in charge of day-to-day affairs of the Haqqani network because his father has health problems.
Before fighting in Afghanistan, NATO said Khan had served as a Haqqani network envoy to Baitullah Mehsud, former leader of the Pakistani Taliban who was killed in 2009.
4 comments:
Watching little Jodie Foster made me happy. Have you ever watched "The Little Girl Who Lives Down the Lane"? If not, highly recommended!
The Aries full moon is already in effect, bright and early or something...
:) Deb
Thanks Deb, a little fun is like a healthy dose of good medicine in these curious and challenging times.
However, I remind people to take serious note of mundane forecasts as what is forecasted will come to pass by means of the inclinations of the planets.
Theo--Thank you for telling it like it is--and how it's going to be. I've been following your forecasts for the past few years, and they have been spot on. I've often felt like I was watching a slow-motion train wreck as world events confirmed your forecasts.
It can't be easy for you, but please know that your talent and efforts are very much appreciated.
The effects of Mars going into Virgo from 11/10/11 to 7/3/12 should prove interesting....
Theo:
I cannot express how much I appreciate your work. I take everything you say to heart as the energies are pure and high. I hope this message finds you well. I look forward to your Mundane Forecast for the month of November. Has the link been changed? I am unable to find it.
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